Roshan Packages (Pakistan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 17.62
| RPL Stock | 18.16 0.08 0.44% |
Roshan |
Roshan Packages Target Price Odds to finish over 17.62
The tendency of Roshan Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 17.62 in 90 days |
| 18.16 | 90 days | 17.62 | about 12.51 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Roshan Packages to stay above 17.62 in 90 days from now is about 12.51 (This Roshan Packages probability density function shows the probability of Roshan Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Roshan Packages price to stay between 17.62 and its current price of 18.16 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.03 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Roshan Packages has a beta of 0.0963 indicating as returns on the market go up, Roshan Packages average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Roshan Packages will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Roshan Packages has an alpha of 0.1504, implying that it can generate a 0.15 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Roshan Packages Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Roshan Packages
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Roshan Packages. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Roshan Packages Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Roshan Packages is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Roshan Packages' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Roshan Packages, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Roshan Packages within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.1 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.20 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Roshan Packages Technical Analysis
Roshan Packages' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Roshan Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Roshan Packages. In general, you should focus on analyzing Roshan Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Roshan Packages Predictive Forecast Models
Roshan Packages' time-series forecasting models is one of many Roshan Packages' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Roshan Packages' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Roshan Packages in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Roshan Packages' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Roshan Packages options trading.
Additional Tools for Roshan Stock Analysis
When running Roshan Packages' price analysis, check to measure Roshan Packages' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Roshan Packages is operating at the current time. Most of Roshan Packages' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Roshan Packages' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Roshan Packages' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Roshan Packages to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.