Revolution Medicines Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 39.37
| RVMD Stock | USD 44.21 1.08 2.38% |
Revolution |
Revolution Medicines Target Price Odds to finish below 39.37
The tendency of Revolution Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 39.37 or more in 90 days |
| 44.21 | 90 days | 39.37 | about 1.96 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Revolution Medicines to drop to $ 39.37 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.96 (This Revolution Medicines probability density function shows the probability of Revolution Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Revolution Medicines price to stay between $ 39.37 and its current price of $44.21 at the end of the 90-day period is about 10.56 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Revolution Medicines has a beta of 0.39 indicating as returns on the market go up, Revolution Medicines average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Revolution Medicines will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Revolution Medicines has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Revolution Medicines Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Revolution Medicines
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Revolution Medicines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Revolution Medicines Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Revolution Medicines is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Revolution Medicines' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Revolution Medicines, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Revolution Medicines within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0016 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0054 |
Revolution Medicines Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Revolution Medicines for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Revolution Medicines can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Revolution Medicines generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 11.58 M. Net Loss for the year was (436.37 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (217.69 M). | |
| Revolution Medicines currently holds about 461.43 M in cash with (350.57 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.26. | |
| Revolution Medicines has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Revolution Medicines, Inc. Insider Mark A. Goldsmith Sells 11,714 Shares of Stock |
Revolution Medicines Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Revolution Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Revolution Medicines' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Revolution Medicines' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 113.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.9 B |
Revolution Medicines Technical Analysis
Revolution Medicines' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Revolution Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Revolution Medicines. In general, you should focus on analyzing Revolution Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Revolution Medicines Predictive Forecast Models
Revolution Medicines' time-series forecasting models is one of many Revolution Medicines' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Revolution Medicines' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Revolution Medicines
Checking the ongoing alerts about Revolution Medicines for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Revolution Medicines help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Revolution Medicines generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 11.58 M. Net Loss for the year was (436.37 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (217.69 M). | |
| Revolution Medicines currently holds about 461.43 M in cash with (350.57 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.26. | |
| Revolution Medicines has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Revolution Medicines, Inc. Insider Mark A. Goldsmith Sells 11,714 Shares of Stock |
Check out Revolution Medicines Backtesting, Revolution Medicines Valuation, Revolution Medicines Correlation, Revolution Medicines Hype Analysis, Revolution Medicines Volatility, Revolution Medicines History as well as Revolution Medicines Performance. For information on how to trade Revolution Stock refer to our How to Trade Revolution Stock guide.You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Revolution Medicines. If investors know Revolution will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Revolution Medicines listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (3.66) | Revenue Per Share 0.005 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.95) | Return On Assets (0.29) | Return On Equity (0.47) |
The market value of Revolution Medicines is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Revolution that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Revolution Medicines' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Revolution Medicines' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Revolution Medicines' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Revolution Medicines' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Revolution Medicines' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Revolution Medicines is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Revolution Medicines' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.