Sibanye Gold Ltd Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.96
| SBSW Stock | USD 4.01 0.13 3.14% |
Sibanye |
Sibanye Gold Target Price Odds to finish below 4.96
The tendency of Sibanye Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 4.96 after 90 days |
| 4.01 | 90 days | 4.96 | about 98.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Sibanye Gold to stay under $ 4.96 after 90 days from now is about 98.0 (This Sibanye Gold Ltd probability density function shows the probability of Sibanye Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Sibanye Gold price to stay between its current price of $ 4.01 and $ 4.96 at the end of the 90-day period is about 82.18 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Sibanye Gold has a beta of 0.48. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Sibanye Gold average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Sibanye Gold Ltd will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Sibanye Gold Ltd has an alpha of 0.1437, implying that it can generate a 0.14 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Sibanye Gold Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Sibanye Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sibanye Gold. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Sibanye Gold's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Sibanye Gold Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Sibanye Gold is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Sibanye Gold's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Sibanye Gold Ltd, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Sibanye Gold within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.48 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.31 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Sibanye Gold Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Sibanye Gold for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Sibanye Gold can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Sibanye Gold had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Sibanye Gold has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 113.68 B. Net Loss for the year was (37.77 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 43.75 B. | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Sibanye-Stillwaters SWOT analysis precious metals miner faces headwinds |
Sibanye Gold Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Sibanye Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Sibanye Gold's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sibanye Gold's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 707.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 25.6 B |
Sibanye Gold Technical Analysis
Sibanye Gold's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Sibanye Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Sibanye Gold Ltd. In general, you should focus on analyzing Sibanye Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Sibanye Gold Predictive Forecast Models
Sibanye Gold's time-series forecasting models is one of many Sibanye Gold's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Sibanye Gold's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Sibanye Gold
Checking the ongoing alerts about Sibanye Gold for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Sibanye Gold help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Sibanye Gold had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Sibanye Gold has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 113.68 B. Net Loss for the year was (37.77 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 43.75 B. | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Sibanye-Stillwaters SWOT analysis precious metals miner faces headwinds |
Additional Tools for Sibanye Stock Analysis
When running Sibanye Gold's price analysis, check to measure Sibanye Gold's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Sibanye Gold is operating at the current time. Most of Sibanye Gold's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Sibanye Gold's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Sibanye Gold's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Sibanye Gold to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.