Security Federal Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 19.89
| SFDL Stock | USD 27.00 1.00 3.57% |
Security |
Security Federal Target Price Odds to finish below 19.89
The tendency of Security Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 19.89 or more in 90 days |
| 27.00 | 90 days | 19.89 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Security Federal to drop to $ 19.89 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Security Federal probability density function shows the probability of Security Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Security Federal price to stay between $ 19.89 and its current price of $27.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 19.51 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Security Federal has a beta of 0.0629. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Security Federal average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Security Federal will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Security Federal has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Security Federal Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Security Federal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Security Federal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Security Federal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Security Federal Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Security Federal is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Security Federal's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Security Federal, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Security Federal within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.42 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Security Federal Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Security Federal for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Security Federal can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Security Federal generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 45.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Security Federal Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Security Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Security Federal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Security Federal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.3 M |
Security Federal Technical Analysis
Security Federal's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Security Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Security Federal. In general, you should focus on analyzing Security Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Security Federal Predictive Forecast Models
Security Federal's time-series forecasting models is one of many Security Federal's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Security Federal's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Security Federal
Checking the ongoing alerts about Security Federal for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Security Federal help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Security Federal generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 45.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Security Pink Sheet
Security Federal financial ratios help investors to determine whether Security Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Security with respect to the benefits of owning Security Federal security.