Super Micro Computer Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 3.05
| SMCI Stock | USD 32.40 0.81 2.56% |
Super |
Super Micro Target Price Odds to finish below 3.05
The tendency of Super Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 3.05 or more in 90 days |
| 32.40 | 90 days | 3.05 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Super Micro to drop to $ 3.05 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Super Micro Computer probability density function shows the probability of Super Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Super Micro Computer price to stay between $ 3.05 and its current price of $32.4 at the end of the 90-day period is about 28.89 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.29 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Super Micro will likely underperform. Additionally Super Micro Computer has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Super Micro Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Super Micro
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Super Micro Computer. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Super Micro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Super Micro Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Super Micro is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Super Micro's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Super Micro Computer, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Super Micro within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.29 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.12 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
Super Micro Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Super Micro for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Super Micro Computer can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Super Micro Computer had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Super Micro Computer is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Super Micro Computer currently holds about 267.4 M in cash with (2.48 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.11. | |
| Roughly 55.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Fed Rate Cuts Anticipated by 2025 Amid Market Uncertainties |
Super Micro Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Super Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Super Micro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Super Micro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 602.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.7 B |
Super Micro Technical Analysis
Super Micro's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Super Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Super Micro Computer. In general, you should focus on analyzing Super Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Super Micro Predictive Forecast Models
Super Micro's time-series forecasting models is one of many Super Micro's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Super Micro's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Super Micro Computer
Checking the ongoing alerts about Super Micro for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Super Micro Computer help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Super Micro Computer had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Super Micro Computer is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Super Micro Computer currently holds about 267.4 M in cash with (2.48 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 5.11. | |
| Roughly 55.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Fed Rate Cuts Anticipated by 2025 Amid Market Uncertainties |
Check out Super Micro Backtesting, Super Micro Valuation, Super Micro Correlation, Super Micro Hype Analysis, Super Micro Volatility, Super Micro History as well as Super Micro Performance. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Super Micro. If investors know Super will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Super Micro listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.61 | Earnings Share 2.01 | Revenue Per Share 26.881 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 1.43 | Return On Assets 0.1162 |
The market value of Super Micro Computer is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Super that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Super Micro's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Super Micro's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Super Micro's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Super Micro's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Super Micro's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Super Micro is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Super Micro's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.