Sumber Mas (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 80.12
| SMKM Stock | 64.00 2.00 3.03% |
Sumber |
Sumber Mas Target Price Odds to finish below 80.12
The tendency of Sumber Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 80.12 after 90 days |
| 64.00 | 90 days | 80.12 | about 36.02 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Sumber Mas to stay under 80.12 after 90 days from now is about 36.02 (This Sumber Mas Konstruksi probability density function shows the probability of Sumber Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Sumber Mas Konstruksi price to stay between its current price of 64.00 and 80.12 at the end of the 90-day period is about 36.13 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Sumber Mas has a beta of 0.8. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Sumber Mas average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Sumber Mas Konstruksi will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Sumber Mas Konstruksi has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Sumber Mas Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Sumber Mas
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sumber Mas Konstruksi. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sumber Mas Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Sumber Mas is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Sumber Mas' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Sumber Mas Konstruksi, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Sumber Mas within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.38 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.80 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.55 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Sumber Mas Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Sumber Mas for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Sumber Mas Konstruksi can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Sumber Mas generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Sumber Mas has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 80.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Sumber Mas Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Sumber Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Sumber Mas' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sumber Mas' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1000 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 90.4 B |
Sumber Mas Technical Analysis
Sumber Mas' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Sumber Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Sumber Mas Konstruksi. In general, you should focus on analyzing Sumber Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Sumber Mas Predictive Forecast Models
Sumber Mas' time-series forecasting models is one of many Sumber Mas' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Sumber Mas' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Sumber Mas Konstruksi
Checking the ongoing alerts about Sumber Mas for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Sumber Mas Konstruksi help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Sumber Mas generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Sumber Mas has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 80.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Sumber Stock
Sumber Mas financial ratios help investors to determine whether Sumber Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Sumber with respect to the benefits of owning Sumber Mas security.