Security National Financial Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.94
| SNFCA Stock | USD 11.80 0.25 2.07% |
Security |
Security National Target Price Odds to finish below 0.94
The tendency of Security Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.94 or more in 90 days |
| 11.80 | 90 days | 0.94 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Security National to drop to $ 0.94 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Security National Financial probability density function shows the probability of Security Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Security National price to stay between $ 0.94 and its current price of $11.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 73.35 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Security National has a beta of 0.78. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Security National average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Security National Financial will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Security National Financial has an alpha of 0.4625, implying that it can generate a 0.46 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Security National Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Security National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Security National. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Security National's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Security National Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Security National is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Security National's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Security National Financial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Security National within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.46 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.78 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.57 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.22 |
Security National Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Security National for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Security National can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 30.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Security National Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Security Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Security National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Security National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 129.8 M |
Security National Technical Analysis
Security National's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Security Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Security National Financial. In general, you should focus on analyzing Security Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Security National Predictive Forecast Models
Security National's time-series forecasting models is one of many Security National's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Security National's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Security National
Checking the ongoing alerts about Security National for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Security National help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 30.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Check out Security National Backtesting, Security National Valuation, Security National Correlation, Security National Hype Analysis, Security National Volatility, Security National History as well as Security National Performance. You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Is Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Security National. If investors know Security will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Security National listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Security National is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Security that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Security National's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Security National's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Security National's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Security National's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Security National's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Security National is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Security National's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.