Virgin Galactic Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 7.61
| SPCE Stock | USD 6.49 0.08 1.22% |
Closest to current price Virgin long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
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Virgin Galactic Target Price Odds to finish below 7.61
The tendency of Virgin Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 7.61 after 90 days |
| 6.49 | 90 days | 7.61 | about 97.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Virgin Galactic to stay under $ 7.61 after 90 days from now is about 97.0 (This Virgin Galactic Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Virgin Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Virgin Galactic Holdings price to stay between its current price of $ 6.49 and $ 7.61 at the end of the 90-day period is about 60.94 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 3.15 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Virgin Galactic will likely underperform. Additionally Virgin Galactic Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Virgin Galactic Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Virgin Galactic
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Virgin Galactic Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Virgin Galactic's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Virgin Galactic Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Virgin Galactic is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Virgin Galactic's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Virgin Galactic Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Virgin Galactic within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 3.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.49 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Virgin Galactic Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Virgin Galactic for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Virgin Galactic Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Virgin Galactic had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Virgin Galactic has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 6.8 M. Net Loss for the year was (502.34 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 406 K. | |
| Virgin Galactic Holdings currently holds about 917.57 M in cash with (448.19 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.55. | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Virgin Galactic Stock Drops Amid Market Volatility |
Virgin Galactic Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Virgin Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Virgin Galactic's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Virgin Galactic's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 874 M |
Virgin Galactic Technical Analysis
Virgin Galactic's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Virgin Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Virgin Galactic Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Virgin Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Virgin Galactic Predictive Forecast Models
Virgin Galactic's time-series forecasting models is one of many Virgin Galactic's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Virgin Galactic's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Virgin Galactic Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Virgin Galactic for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Virgin Galactic Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Virgin Galactic had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Virgin Galactic has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 6.8 M. Net Loss for the year was (502.34 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 406 K. | |
| Virgin Galactic Holdings currently holds about 917.57 M in cash with (448.19 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.55. | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Virgin Galactic Stock Drops Amid Market Volatility |
Check out Virgin Galactic Backtesting, Virgin Galactic Valuation, Virgin Galactic Correlation, Virgin Galactic Hype Analysis, Virgin Galactic Volatility, Virgin Galactic History as well as Virgin Galactic Performance. You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Aerospace & Defense space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Virgin Galactic. If investors know Virgin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Virgin Galactic listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (16.26) | Revenue Per Share 0.421 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.77) | Return On Assets (0.22) | Return On Equity (0.78) |
The market value of Virgin Galactic Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Virgin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Virgin Galactic's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Virgin Galactic's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Virgin Galactic's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Virgin Galactic's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Virgin Galactic's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Virgin Galactic is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Virgin Galactic's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.