Sparinvest INDEX (Denmark) Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Over 152.76

SPIGLAMRIKL  DKK 153.50  0.86  0.56%   
Sparinvest INDEX's future price is the expected price of Sparinvest INDEX instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Sparinvest INDEX Globale performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Sparinvest INDEX Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Sparinvest INDEX Correlation, Sparinvest INDEX Hype Analysis, Sparinvest INDEX Volatility, Sparinvest INDEX History as well as Sparinvest INDEX Performance.
  
Please specify Sparinvest INDEX's target price for which you would like Sparinvest INDEX odds to be computed.

Sparinvest INDEX Target Price Odds to finish over 152.76

The tendency of Sparinvest Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above kr 152.76  in 90 days
 153.50 90 days 152.76 
nearly 4.31
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Sparinvest INDEX to stay above kr 152.76  in 90 days from now is nearly 4.31 (This Sparinvest INDEX Globale probability density function shows the probability of Sparinvest Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Sparinvest INDEX Globale price to stay between kr 152.76  and its current price of kr153.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.72 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Sparinvest INDEX has a beta of 0.51. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Sparinvest INDEX average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Sparinvest INDEX Globale will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Sparinvest INDEX Globale has an alpha of 0.0233, implying that it can generate a 0.0233 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Sparinvest INDEX Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Sparinvest INDEX

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sparinvest INDEX Globale. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
152.89153.50154.11
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
146.75147.36168.85
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
153.88154.49155.10
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
150.14152.26154.38
Details

Sparinvest INDEX Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Sparinvest INDEX is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Sparinvest INDEX's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Sparinvest INDEX Globale, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Sparinvest INDEX within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.02
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.51
σ
Overall volatility
3.24
Ir
Information ratio -0.07

Sparinvest INDEX Technical Analysis

Sparinvest INDEX's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Sparinvest Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Sparinvest INDEX Globale. In general, you should focus on analyzing Sparinvest Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Sparinvest INDEX Predictive Forecast Models

Sparinvest INDEX's time-series forecasting models is one of many Sparinvest INDEX's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Sparinvest INDEX's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Sparinvest INDEX in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Sparinvest INDEX's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Sparinvest INDEX options trading.

Other Information on Investing in Sparinvest Fund

Sparinvest INDEX financial ratios help investors to determine whether Sparinvest Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Sparinvest with respect to the benefits of owning Sparinvest INDEX security.
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
Technical Analysis
Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data
Portfolio File Import
Quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format