Stoke Therapeutics Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 12.02
| STOK Stock | USD 12.98 0.28 2.11% |
Stoke |
Stoke Therapeutics Target Price Odds to finish over 12.02
The tendency of Stoke Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 12.02 in 90 days |
| 12.98 | 90 days | 12.02 | about 76.91 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Stoke Therapeutics to stay above $ 12.02 in 90 days from now is about 76.91 (This Stoke Therapeutics probability density function shows the probability of Stoke Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Stoke Therapeutics price to stay between $ 12.02 and its current price of $12.98 at the end of the 90-day period is about 33.65 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.55 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Stoke Therapeutics will likely underperform. Additionally Stoke Therapeutics has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Stoke Therapeutics Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Stoke Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Stoke Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Stoke Therapeutics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Stoke Therapeutics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Stoke Therapeutics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Stoke Therapeutics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Stoke Therapeutics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.42 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.55 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.06 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Stoke Therapeutics Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Stoke Therapeutics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Stoke Therapeutics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Stoke Therapeutics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Stoke Therapeutics has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Stoke Therapeutics has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 8.78 M. Net Loss for the year was (104.7 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 12.4 M. | |
| Stoke Therapeutics currently holds about 275.63 M in cash with (81.07 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.99. | |
| Stoke Therapeutics has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. Insider Sells 33,592.14 in Stock |
Stoke Therapeutics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Stoke Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Stoke Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Stoke Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 44 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 201.4 M |
Stoke Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Stoke Therapeutics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Stoke Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Stoke Therapeutics. In general, you should focus on analyzing Stoke Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Stoke Therapeutics Predictive Forecast Models
Stoke Therapeutics' time-series forecasting models is one of many Stoke Therapeutics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Stoke Therapeutics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Stoke Therapeutics
Checking the ongoing alerts about Stoke Therapeutics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Stoke Therapeutics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Stoke Therapeutics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Stoke Therapeutics has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Stoke Therapeutics has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 8.78 M. Net Loss for the year was (104.7 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 12.4 M. | |
| Stoke Therapeutics currently holds about 275.63 M in cash with (81.07 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.99. | |
| Stoke Therapeutics has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. Insider Sells 33,592.14 in Stock |
Check out Stoke Therapeutics Backtesting, Stoke Therapeutics Valuation, Stoke Therapeutics Correlation, Stoke Therapeutics Hype Analysis, Stoke Therapeutics Volatility, Stoke Therapeutics History as well as Stoke Therapeutics Performance. For more information on how to buy Stoke Stock please use our How to buy in Stoke Stock guide.You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Stoke Therapeutics. If investors know Stoke will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Stoke Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (2.08) | Revenue Per Share 0.328 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.479 | Return On Assets (0.28) | Return On Equity (0.52) |
The market value of Stoke Therapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Stoke that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Stoke Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Stoke Therapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Stoke Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Stoke Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Stoke Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Stoke Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Stoke Therapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.