Smith Wesson Brands Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.25
| SWBI Stock | USD 11.13 0.19 1.68% |
Smith |
Smith Wesson Target Price Odds to finish below 4.25
The tendency of Smith Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 4.25 or more in 90 days |
| 11.13 | 90 days | 4.25 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Smith Wesson to drop to $ 4.25 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Smith Wesson Brands probability density function shows the probability of Smith Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Smith Wesson Brands price to stay between $ 4.25 and its current price of $11.13 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Smith Wesson has a beta of 0.44. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Smith Wesson average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Smith Wesson Brands will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Smith Wesson Brands has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Smith Wesson Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Smith Wesson
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smith Wesson Brands. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Smith Wesson Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Smith Wesson is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Smith Wesson's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Smith Wesson Brands, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Smith Wesson within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.44 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.57 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Smith Wesson Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Smith Wesson for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Smith Wesson Brands can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Smith Wesson Brands generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Smith Wesson Brands has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Smith Wesson Brands has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 61.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from benzinga.com: Jim Cramer Is Not A Fan Of Novavax, Says This Tech Stock Is Expensive |
Smith Wesson Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Smith Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Smith Wesson's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Smith Wesson's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 46.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 60.8 M |
Smith Wesson Technical Analysis
Smith Wesson's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Smith Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Smith Wesson Brands. In general, you should focus on analyzing Smith Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Smith Wesson Predictive Forecast Models
Smith Wesson's time-series forecasting models is one of many Smith Wesson's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Smith Wesson's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Smith Wesson Brands
Checking the ongoing alerts about Smith Wesson for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Smith Wesson Brands help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Smith Wesson Brands generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Smith Wesson Brands has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Smith Wesson Brands has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 61.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from benzinga.com: Jim Cramer Is Not A Fan Of Novavax, Says This Tech Stock Is Expensive |
Check out Smith Wesson Backtesting, Smith Wesson Valuation, Smith Wesson Correlation, Smith Wesson Hype Analysis, Smith Wesson Volatility, Smith Wesson History as well as Smith Wesson Performance. You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.
Is Leisure Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Smith Wesson. If investors know Smith will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Smith Wesson listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.047 | Earnings Share 0.78 | Revenue Per Share 11.178 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.23) | Return On Assets 0.0504 |
The market value of Smith Wesson Brands is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Smith that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Smith Wesson's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Smith Wesson's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Smith Wesson's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Smith Wesson's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Smith Wesson's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Smith Wesson is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Smith Wesson's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.