Tripadvisor (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 89.47

T1RI34 Stock  BRL 85.41  2.07  2.48%   
Tripadvisor's future price is the expected price of Tripadvisor instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Tripadvisor performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Tripadvisor Backtesting, Tripadvisor Valuation, Tripadvisor Correlation, Tripadvisor Hype Analysis, Tripadvisor Volatility, Tripadvisor History as well as Tripadvisor Performance.
For information on how to trade Tripadvisor Stock refer to our How to Trade Tripadvisor Stock guide.
  
Please specify Tripadvisor's target price for which you would like Tripadvisor odds to be computed.

Tripadvisor Target Price Odds to finish below 89.47

The tendency of Tripadvisor Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under R$ 89.47  after 90 days
 85.41 90 days 89.47 
about 90.04
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Tripadvisor to stay under R$ 89.47  after 90 days from now is about 90.04 (This Tripadvisor probability density function shows the probability of Tripadvisor Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Tripadvisor price to stay between its current price of R$ 85.41  and R$ 89.47  at the end of the 90-day period is about 26.54 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Tripadvisor has a beta of 0.13. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Tripadvisor average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Tripadvisor will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Tripadvisor has an alpha of 0.1488, implying that it can generate a 0.15 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Tripadvisor Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Tripadvisor

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tripadvisor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
81.4883.3485.20
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
82.3984.2586.11
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
77.6779.5381.38
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
78.9383.3987.85
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Tripadvisor. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Tripadvisor's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Tripadvisor's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Tripadvisor.

Tripadvisor Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Tripadvisor is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Tripadvisor's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Tripadvisor, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Tripadvisor within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.15
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.13
σ
Overall volatility
4.31
Ir
Information ratio 0.07

Tripadvisor Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Tripadvisor for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Tripadvisor can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company reported the revenue of 902 M. Net Loss for the year was (148 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 828 M.

Tripadvisor Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Tripadvisor Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Tripadvisor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Tripadvisor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding138.6 M

Tripadvisor Technical Analysis

Tripadvisor's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Tripadvisor Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Tripadvisor. In general, you should focus on analyzing Tripadvisor Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Tripadvisor Predictive Forecast Models

Tripadvisor's time-series forecasting models is one of many Tripadvisor's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Tripadvisor's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Tripadvisor

Checking the ongoing alerts about Tripadvisor for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Tripadvisor help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company reported the revenue of 902 M. Net Loss for the year was (148 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 828 M.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Tripadvisor Stock

When determining whether Tripadvisor is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Tripadvisor Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Tripadvisor Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Tripadvisor Stock:
Check out Tripadvisor Backtesting, Tripadvisor Valuation, Tripadvisor Correlation, Tripadvisor Hype Analysis, Tripadvisor Volatility, Tripadvisor History as well as Tripadvisor Performance.
For information on how to trade Tripadvisor Stock refer to our How to Trade Tripadvisor Stock guide.
You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Tripadvisor's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Tripadvisor is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Tripadvisor's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.