TreeHouse Foods (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 29.96
| T4H Stock | EUR 31.60 0.20 0.64% |
TreeHouse |
TreeHouse Foods Target Price Odds to finish below 29.96
The tendency of TreeHouse Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 29.96 or more in 90 days |
| 31.60 | 90 days | 29.96 | roughly 2.25 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of TreeHouse Foods to drop to € 29.96 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.25 (This TreeHouse Foods probability density function shows the probability of TreeHouse Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of TreeHouse Foods price to stay between € 29.96 and its current price of €31.6 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.23 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.15 . This usually implies TreeHouse Foods market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, TreeHouse Foods is expected to follow. Additionally TreeHouse Foods has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. TreeHouse Foods Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for TreeHouse Foods
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TreeHouse Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.TreeHouse Foods Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. TreeHouse Foods is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the TreeHouse Foods' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold TreeHouse Foods, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of TreeHouse Foods within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.37 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.15 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.61 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
TreeHouse Foods Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of TreeHouse Foods for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for TreeHouse Foods can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| TreeHouse Foods generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| TreeHouse Foods has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| TreeHouse Foods has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company reported the revenue of 3.45 B. Net Loss for the year was (146.3 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 517 M. | |
| TreeHouse Foods has accumulated about 79 M in cash with (150.7 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.41. | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
TreeHouse Foods Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of TreeHouse Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential TreeHouse Foods' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TreeHouse Foods' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 56.1 M |
TreeHouse Foods Technical Analysis
TreeHouse Foods' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. TreeHouse Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of TreeHouse Foods. In general, you should focus on analyzing TreeHouse Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
TreeHouse Foods Predictive Forecast Models
TreeHouse Foods' time-series forecasting models is one of many TreeHouse Foods' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary TreeHouse Foods' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about TreeHouse Foods
Checking the ongoing alerts about TreeHouse Foods for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for TreeHouse Foods help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| TreeHouse Foods generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| TreeHouse Foods has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| TreeHouse Foods has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company reported the revenue of 3.45 B. Net Loss for the year was (146.3 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 517 M. | |
| TreeHouse Foods has accumulated about 79 M in cash with (150.7 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.41. | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in TreeHouse Stock
When determining whether TreeHouse Foods is a strong investment it is important to analyze TreeHouse Foods' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact TreeHouse Foods' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding TreeHouse Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out TreeHouse Foods Backtesting, TreeHouse Foods Valuation, TreeHouse Foods Correlation, TreeHouse Foods Hype Analysis, TreeHouse Foods Volatility, TreeHouse Foods History as well as TreeHouse Foods Performance. For more detail on how to invest in TreeHouse Stock please use our How to Invest in TreeHouse Foods guide.You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.