Transalta Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 22.08
| TA Stock | CAD 19.10 1.16 6.47% |
TransAlta |
TransAlta Corp Target Price Odds to finish over 22.08
The tendency of TransAlta Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over C$ 22.08 or more in 90 days |
| 19.10 | 90 days | 22.08 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of TransAlta Corp to move over C$ 22.08 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This TransAlta Corp probability density function shows the probability of TransAlta Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of TransAlta Corp price to stay between its current price of C$ 19.10 and C$ 22.08 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon TransAlta Corp has a beta of -0.51. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding TransAlta Corp are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, TransAlta Corp is likely to outperform the market. Additionally TransAlta Corp has an alpha of 0.7822, implying that it can generate a 0.78 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). TransAlta Corp Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for TransAlta Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TransAlta Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of TransAlta Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
TransAlta Corp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. TransAlta Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the TransAlta Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold TransAlta Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of TransAlta Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.78 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.51 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.26 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.25 |
TransAlta Corp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of TransAlta Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for TransAlta Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| TransAlta Corp has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 71.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Stocks In Play TransAlta Corporation - Barchart |
TransAlta Corp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of TransAlta Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential TransAlta Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TransAlta Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 276 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 348 M |
TransAlta Corp Technical Analysis
TransAlta Corp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. TransAlta Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of TransAlta Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing TransAlta Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
TransAlta Corp Predictive Forecast Models
TransAlta Corp's time-series forecasting models is one of many TransAlta Corp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary TransAlta Corp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about TransAlta Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about TransAlta Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for TransAlta Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| TransAlta Corp has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 71.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Stocks In Play TransAlta Corporation - Barchart |
Check out TransAlta Corp Backtesting, TransAlta Corp Valuation, TransAlta Corp Correlation, TransAlta Corp Hype Analysis, TransAlta Corp Volatility, TransAlta Corp History as well as TransAlta Corp Performance. To learn how to invest in TransAlta Stock, please use our How to Invest in TransAlta Corp guide.You can also try the Latest Portfolios module to quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios.