Trip Group Ltd Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 53.30
| TCOM Stock | USD 63.80 0.90 1.43% |
Trip |
Trip Group Target Price Odds to finish below 53.30
The tendency of Trip Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 53.30 or more in 90 days |
| 63.80 | 90 days | 53.30 | about 25.7 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Trip Group to drop to $ 53.30 or more in 90 days from now is about 25.7 (This Trip Group Ltd probability density function shows the probability of Trip Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Trip Group price to stay between $ 53.30 and its current price of $63.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 49.95 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Trip Group Ltd has a beta of -0.72. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Trip Group are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Trip Group Ltd is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Trip Group Ltd has an alpha of 0.6398, implying that it can generate a 0.64 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Trip Group Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Trip Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Trip Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Trip Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Trip Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Trip Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Trip Group Ltd, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Trip Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.64 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.72 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 7.79 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
Trip Group Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Trip Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Trip Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Trip Group appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Ctrips Strong Q3 Performance Exceeds Expectations, Target Price Raised |
Trip Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Trip Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Trip Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Trip Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 671.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 59.3 B |
Trip Group Technical Analysis
Trip Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Trip Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Trip Group Ltd. In general, you should focus on analyzing Trip Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Trip Group Predictive Forecast Models
Trip Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many Trip Group's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Trip Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Trip Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about Trip Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Trip Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Trip Group appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Ctrips Strong Q3 Performance Exceeds Expectations, Target Price Raised |
Check out Trip Group Backtesting, Trip Group Valuation, Trip Group Correlation, Trip Group Hype Analysis, Trip Group Volatility, Trip Group History as well as Trip Group Performance. You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.
Is Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Trip Group. If investors know Trip will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Trip Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 4.926 | Earnings Share 2.86 | Revenue Per Share 74.603 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.136 | Return On Assets 0.0348 |
The market value of Trip Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Trip that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Trip Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Trip Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Trip Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Trip Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Trip Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Trip Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Trip Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.