Toronto Dominion Bank Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 70.96
| TD Stock | CAD 76.22 0.61 0.81% |
Toronto |
Toronto Dominion Target Price Odds to finish below 70.96
The tendency of Toronto Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to C$ 70.96 or more in 90 days |
| 76.22 | 90 days | 70.96 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Toronto Dominion to drop to C$ 70.96 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Toronto Dominion Bank probability density function shows the probability of Toronto Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Toronto Dominion Bank price to stay between C$ 70.96 and its current price of C$76.22 at the end of the 90-day period is about 19.35 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Toronto Dominion has a beta of 0.0643. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Toronto Dominion average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Toronto Dominion Bank will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Toronto Dominion Bank has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Toronto Dominion Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Toronto Dominion
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Toronto Dominion Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Toronto Dominion's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Toronto Dominion Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Toronto Dominion is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Toronto Dominion's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Toronto Dominion Bank, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Toronto Dominion within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.35 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.16 |
Toronto Dominion Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Toronto Dominion for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Toronto Dominion Bank can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Toronto Dominion generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 60.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Toronto Dominion Bank Raises Stake in Nio Inc - - MarketBeat |
Toronto Dominion Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Toronto Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Toronto Dominion's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Toronto Dominion's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.8 B |
Toronto Dominion Technical Analysis
Toronto Dominion's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Toronto Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Toronto Dominion Bank. In general, you should focus on analyzing Toronto Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Toronto Dominion Predictive Forecast Models
Toronto Dominion's time-series forecasting models is one of many Toronto Dominion's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Toronto Dominion's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Toronto Dominion Bank
Checking the ongoing alerts about Toronto Dominion for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Toronto Dominion Bank help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Toronto Dominion generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 60.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Toronto Dominion Bank Raises Stake in Nio Inc - - MarketBeat |
Check out Toronto Dominion Backtesting, Toronto Dominion Valuation, Toronto Dominion Correlation, Toronto Dominion Hype Analysis, Toronto Dominion Volatility, Toronto Dominion History as well as Toronto Dominion Performance. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.