Thornburg New Mexico Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 12.05
| THNDX Fund | USD 12.47 0.01 0.08% |
Thornburg |
Thornburg New Target Price Odds to finish below 12.05
The tendency of Thornburg Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 12.05 or more in 90 days |
| 12.47 | 90 days | 12.05 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Thornburg New to drop to $ 12.05 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Thornburg New Mexico probability density function shows the probability of Thornburg Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Thornburg New Mexico price to stay between $ 12.05 and its current price of $12.47 at the end of the 90-day period is about 88.29 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Thornburg New has a beta of 0.0358. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Thornburg New average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Thornburg New Mexico will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Thornburg New Mexico has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Thornburg New Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Thornburg New
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Thornburg New Mexico. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Thornburg New's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Thornburg New Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Thornburg New is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Thornburg New's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Thornburg New Mexico, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Thornburg New within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0091 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.84 |
Thornburg New Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Thornburg New for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Thornburg New Mexico can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund generated three year return of -1.0% | |
| Thornburg New Mexico maintains about 6.95% of its assets in cash |
Thornburg New Technical Analysis
Thornburg New's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Thornburg Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Thornburg New Mexico. In general, you should focus on analyzing Thornburg Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Thornburg New Predictive Forecast Models
Thornburg New's time-series forecasting models is one of many Thornburg New's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Thornburg New's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Thornburg New Mexico
Checking the ongoing alerts about Thornburg New for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Thornburg New Mexico help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund generated three year return of -1.0% | |
| Thornburg New Mexico maintains about 6.95% of its assets in cash |
Other Information on Investing in Thornburg Mutual Fund
Thornburg New financial ratios help investors to determine whether Thornburg Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Thornburg with respect to the benefits of owning Thornburg New security.
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