Pabrik Kertas (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 6,361
| TKIM Stock | IDR 6,325 50.00 0.78% |
Pabrik |
Pabrik Kertas Target Price Odds to finish below 6,361
The tendency of Pabrik Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 6,325 | 90 days | 6,325 | about 11.94 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Pabrik Kertas to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 11.94 (This Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi probability density function shows the probability of Pabrik Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi has a beta of -0.0653. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Pabrik Kertas are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Pabrik Kertas Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Pabrik Kertas
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Pabrik Kertas Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Pabrik Kertas is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Pabrik Kertas' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Pabrik Kertas within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.21 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.07 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 527.24 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.15 |
Pabrik Kertas Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Pabrik Kertas for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 60.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Pabrik Kertas Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Pabrik Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Pabrik Kertas' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Pabrik Kertas' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 205.4 M |
Pabrik Kertas Technical Analysis
Pabrik Kertas' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Pabrik Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi. In general, you should focus on analyzing Pabrik Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Pabrik Kertas Predictive Forecast Models
Pabrik Kertas' time-series forecasting models is one of many Pabrik Kertas' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Pabrik Kertas' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi
Checking the ongoing alerts about Pabrik Kertas for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 60.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Pabrik Stock
Pabrik Kertas financial ratios help investors to determine whether Pabrik Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Pabrik with respect to the benefits of owning Pabrik Kertas security.