Tilray Inc Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.26
| TLRY Stock | USD 1.43 0.05 3.38% |
Tilray |
Tilray Target Price Odds to finish below 1.26
The tendency of Tilray Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 1.26 or more in 90 days |
| 1.43 | 90 days | 1.26 | about 10.01 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Tilray to drop to $ 1.26 or more in 90 days from now is about 10.01 (This Tilray Inc probability density function shows the probability of Tilray Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Tilray Inc price to stay between $ 1.26 and its current price of $1.43 at the end of the 90-day period is about 26.87 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Tilray has a beta of 0.75. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Tilray average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Tilray Inc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Tilray Inc has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Tilray Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Tilray
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tilray Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Tilray Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Tilray is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Tilray's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Tilray Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Tilray within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.2 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.75 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.18 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Tilray Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Tilray for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Tilray Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Tilray Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Tilray Inc may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Tilray Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Tilray Inc has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 788.94 M. Net Loss for the year was (222.4 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 116.82 M. | |
| Tilray Inc currently holds about 490.64 M in cash with (30.91 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.8. | |
| Tilray Inc has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Is Tilray Brands, Inc. the Best Marijuana Stock to Buy According to Hedge Funds |
Tilray Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Tilray Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Tilray's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Tilray's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 742.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 260.5 M |
Tilray Technical Analysis
Tilray's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Tilray Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Tilray Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Tilray Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Tilray Predictive Forecast Models
Tilray's time-series forecasting models is one of many Tilray's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Tilray's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Tilray Inc
Checking the ongoing alerts about Tilray for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Tilray Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Tilray Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Tilray Inc may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Tilray Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Tilray Inc has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 788.94 M. Net Loss for the year was (222.4 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 116.82 M. | |
| Tilray Inc currently holds about 490.64 M in cash with (30.91 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.8. | |
| Tilray Inc has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Is Tilray Brands, Inc. the Best Marijuana Stock to Buy According to Hedge Funds |
Additional Tools for Tilray Stock Analysis
When running Tilray's price analysis, check to measure Tilray's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tilray is operating at the current time. Most of Tilray's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tilray's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tilray's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tilray to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.