Trican Well Service Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 2.87
| TOLWF Stock | USD 3.49 0.08 2.35% |
Trican |
Trican Well Target Price Odds to finish over 2.87
The tendency of Trican Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 2.87 in 90 days |
| 3.49 | 90 days | 2.87 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Trican Well to stay above $ 2.87 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Trican Well Service probability density function shows the probability of Trican Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Trican Well Service price to stay between $ 2.87 and its current price of $3.49 at the end of the 90-day period is about 70.47 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Trican Well Service has a beta of -0.21. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Trican Well are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Trican Well Service is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Trican Well Service has an alpha of 0.0161, implying that it can generate a 0.0161 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Trican Well Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Trican Well
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Trican Well Service. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Trican Well's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Trican Well Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Trican Well is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Trican Well's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Trican Well Service, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Trican Well within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.21 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.13 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Trican Well Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Trican Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Trican Well's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Trican Well's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 247 M |
Trican Well Technical Analysis
Trican Well's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Trican Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Trican Well Service. In general, you should focus on analyzing Trican Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Trican Well Predictive Forecast Models
Trican Well's time-series forecasting models is one of many Trican Well's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Trican Well's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Trican Well in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Trican Well's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Trican Well options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Trican Pink Sheet
Trican Well financial ratios help investors to determine whether Trican Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Trican with respect to the benefits of owning Trican Well security.