Trans Asia (Sri Lanka) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 35.05
| TRANN0000 | LKR 41.20 0.40 0.96% |
Trans |
Trans Asia Target Price Odds to finish below 35.05
The tendency of Trans Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 35.05 or more in 90 days |
| 41.20 | 90 days | 35.05 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Trans Asia to drop to 35.05 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Trans Asia Hotels probability density function shows the probability of Trans Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Trans Asia Hotels price to stay between 35.05 and its current price of 41.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 65.37 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Trans Asia Hotels has a beta of -0.21. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Trans Asia are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Trans Asia Hotels is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Trans Asia Hotels has an alpha of 0.0552, implying that it can generate a 0.0552 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Trans Asia Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Trans Asia
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Trans Asia Hotels. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Trans Asia Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Trans Asia is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Trans Asia's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Trans Asia Hotels, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Trans Asia within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.21 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.01 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Trans Asia Technical Analysis
Trans Asia's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Trans Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Trans Asia Hotels. In general, you should focus on analyzing Trans Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Trans Asia Predictive Forecast Models
Trans Asia's time-series forecasting models is one of many Trans Asia's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Trans Asia's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Trans Asia in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Trans Asia's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Trans Asia options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Trans Stock
Trans Asia financial ratios help investors to determine whether Trans Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Trans with respect to the benefits of owning Trans Asia security.