TransAlta (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12.34
| TZ1 Stock | EUR 13.19 0.04 0.30% |
TransAlta |
TransAlta Target Price Odds to finish below 12.34
The tendency of TransAlta Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 12.34 or more in 90 days |
| 13.19 | 90 days | 12.34 | under 95 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of TransAlta to drop to € 12.34 or more in 90 days from now is under 95 (This TransAlta probability density function shows the probability of TransAlta Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of TransAlta price to stay between € 12.34 and its current price of €13.19 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.25 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon TransAlta has a beta of -0.36. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding TransAlta are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, TransAlta is likely to outperform the market. Additionally TransAlta has an alpha of 0.704, implying that it can generate a 0.7 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). TransAlta Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for TransAlta
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TransAlta. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.TransAlta Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. TransAlta is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the TransAlta's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold TransAlta, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of TransAlta within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.70 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.36 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.38 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.24 |
TransAlta Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of TransAlta for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for TransAlta can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
TransAlta Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of TransAlta Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential TransAlta's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TransAlta's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 268.3 M |
TransAlta Technical Analysis
TransAlta's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. TransAlta Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of TransAlta. In general, you should focus on analyzing TransAlta Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
TransAlta Predictive Forecast Models
TransAlta's time-series forecasting models is one of many TransAlta's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary TransAlta's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about TransAlta
Checking the ongoing alerts about TransAlta for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for TransAlta help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Other Information on Investing in TransAlta Stock
TransAlta financial ratios help investors to determine whether TransAlta Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in TransAlta with respect to the benefits of owning TransAlta security.