Ulta Beauty (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 99.5
| U1LT34 Stock | BRL 131.35 0.95 0.73% |
Ulta |
Ulta Beauty Target Price Odds to finish below 99.5
The tendency of Ulta Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 99.50 or more in 90 days |
| 131.35 | 90 days | 99.50 | about 10.3 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ulta Beauty to drop to R$ 99.50 or more in 90 days from now is about 10.3 (This Ulta Beauty probability density function shows the probability of Ulta Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ulta Beauty price to stay between R$ 99.50 and its current price of R$131.35 at the end of the 90-day period is about 88.43 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Ulta Beauty has a beta of 0.0124. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Ulta Beauty average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ulta Beauty will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Ulta Beauty has an alpha of 0.2938, implying that it can generate a 0.29 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Ulta Beauty Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ulta Beauty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ulta Beauty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ulta Beauty Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ulta Beauty is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ulta Beauty's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ulta Beauty, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ulta Beauty within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.29 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Ulta Beauty Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ulta Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ulta Beauty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ulta Beauty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 52.3 M |
Ulta Beauty Technical Analysis
Ulta Beauty's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ulta Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ulta Beauty. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ulta Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ulta Beauty Predictive Forecast Models
Ulta Beauty's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ulta Beauty's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ulta Beauty's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Ulta Beauty in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Ulta Beauty's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Ulta Beauty options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Ulta Stock
When determining whether Ulta Beauty offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Ulta Beauty's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Ulta Beauty Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Ulta Beauty Stock:Check out Ulta Beauty Backtesting, Ulta Beauty Valuation, Ulta Beauty Correlation, Ulta Beauty Hype Analysis, Ulta Beauty Volatility, Ulta Beauty History as well as Ulta Beauty Performance. For information on how to trade Ulta Stock refer to our How to Trade Ulta Stock guide.You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.