Penske Automotive (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 148.17
| UA9 Stock | EUR 150.00 1.00 0.67% |
Penske |
Penske Automotive Target Price Odds to finish over 148.17
The tendency of Penske Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above € 148.17 in 90 days |
| 150.00 | 90 days | 148.17 | about 41.46 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Penske Automotive to stay above € 148.17 in 90 days from now is about 41.46 (This Penske Automotive Group probability density function shows the probability of Penske Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Penske Automotive price to stay between € 148.17 and its current price of €150.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.73 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Penske Automotive has a beta of 0.95. This usually implies Penske Automotive Group market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Penske Automotive is expected to follow. Additionally Penske Automotive Group has an alpha of 0.0535, implying that it can generate a 0.0535 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Penske Automotive Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Penske Automotive
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Penske Automotive. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Penske Automotive Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Penske Automotive is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Penske Automotive's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Penske Automotive Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Penske Automotive within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.95 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 7.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
Penske Automotive Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Penske Automotive for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Penske Automotive can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Penske Automotive has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Penske Automotive Group has accumulated 1.55 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 313.5, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Penske Automotive has a current ratio of 0.96, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Penske Automotive until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Penske Automotive's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Penske Automotive sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Penske to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Penske Automotive's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 81.0% of Penske Automotive outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors |
Penske Automotive Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Penske Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Penske Automotive's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Penske Automotive's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 69.7 M |
Penske Automotive Technical Analysis
Penske Automotive's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Penske Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Penske Automotive Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Penske Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Penske Automotive Predictive Forecast Models
Penske Automotive's time-series forecasting models is one of many Penske Automotive's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Penske Automotive's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Penske Automotive
Checking the ongoing alerts about Penske Automotive for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Penske Automotive help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Penske Automotive has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Penske Automotive Group has accumulated 1.55 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 313.5, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Penske Automotive has a current ratio of 0.96, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Penske Automotive until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Penske Automotive's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Penske Automotive sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Penske to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Penske Automotive's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 81.0% of Penske Automotive outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Penske Stock
When determining whether Penske Automotive is a strong investment it is important to analyze Penske Automotive's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Penske Automotive's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Penske Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Penske Automotive Backtesting, Penske Automotive Valuation, Penske Automotive Correlation, Penske Automotive Hype Analysis, Penske Automotive Volatility, Penske Automotive History as well as Penske Automotive Performance. You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.