Swatch Group (Switzerland) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 164.7
| UHR Stock | 160.20 4.50 2.73% |
Swatch |
Swatch Group Target Price Odds to finish over 164.7
The tendency of Swatch Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 164.70 or more in 90 days |
| 160.20 | 90 days | 164.70 | about 65.29 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Swatch Group to move over 164.70 or more in 90 days from now is about 65.29 (This Swatch Group AG probability density function shows the probability of Swatch Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Swatch Group AG price to stay between its current price of 160.20 and 164.70 at the end of the 90-day period is about 13.96 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Swatch Group AG has a beta of -0.29. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Swatch Group are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Swatch Group AG is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Swatch Group AG has an alpha of 0.131, implying that it can generate a 0.13 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Swatch Group Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Swatch Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Swatch Group AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Swatch Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Swatch Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Swatch Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Swatch Group AG, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Swatch Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.29 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 10.66 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Swatch Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Swatch Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Swatch Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Swatch Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 80.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.7 B |
Swatch Group Technical Analysis
Swatch Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Swatch Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Swatch Group AG. In general, you should focus on analyzing Swatch Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Swatch Group Predictive Forecast Models
Swatch Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many Swatch Group's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Swatch Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Swatch Group in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Swatch Group's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Swatch Group options trading.
Additional Tools for Swatch Stock Analysis
When running Swatch Group's price analysis, check to measure Swatch Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Swatch Group is operating at the current time. Most of Swatch Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Swatch Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Swatch Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Swatch Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.