Umb Financial Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 127.27

UMBF Stock  USD 122.36  2.61  2.09%   
UMB Financial's future price is the expected price of UMB Financial instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of UMB Financial performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out UMB Financial Backtesting, UMB Financial Valuation, UMB Financial Correlation, UMB Financial Hype Analysis, UMB Financial Volatility, UMB Financial History as well as UMB Financial Performance.
For more detail on how to invest in UMB Stock please use our How to Invest in UMB Financial guide.
  
At this time, UMB Financial's Price To Free Cash Flows Ratio is most likely to slightly decrease in the upcoming years. The UMB Financial's current Price Cash Flow Ratio is estimated to increase to 12.06, while Price Book Value Ratio is projected to decrease to 1.18. Please specify UMB Financial's target price for which you would like UMB Financial odds to be computed.

UMB Financial Target Price Odds to finish over 127.27

The tendency of UMB Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 127.27  or more in 90 days
 122.36 90 days 127.27 
about 5.62
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of UMB Financial to move over $ 127.27  or more in 90 days from now is about 5.62 (This UMB Financial probability density function shows the probability of UMB Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of UMB Financial price to stay between its current price of $ 122.36  and $ 127.27  at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.92 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.27 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, UMB Financial will likely underperform. Additionally UMB Financial has an alpha of 0.0754, implying that it can generate a 0.0754 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   UMB Financial Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for UMB Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UMB Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
122.00124.29126.58
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
108.76111.05136.16
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
119.68121.97124.25
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
68.0774.8083.03
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as UMB Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against UMB Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, UMB Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in UMB Financial.

UMB Financial Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. UMB Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the UMB Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold UMB Financial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of UMB Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.08
β
Beta against Dow Jones2.27
σ
Overall volatility
9.24
Ir
Information ratio 0.1

UMB Financial Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of UMB Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for UMB Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
UMB Financial has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 91.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: UMB Financial price target raised to 1 from 123 at Barclays - Yahoo Finance

UMB Financial Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of UMB Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential UMB Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. UMB Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding48.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments452.2 M

UMB Financial Technical Analysis

UMB Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. UMB Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of UMB Financial. In general, you should focus on analyzing UMB Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

UMB Financial Predictive Forecast Models

UMB Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many UMB Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary UMB Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about UMB Financial

Checking the ongoing alerts about UMB Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for UMB Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
UMB Financial has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 91.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: UMB Financial price target raised to 1 from 123 at Barclays - Yahoo Finance
When determining whether UMB Financial is a strong investment it is important to analyze UMB Financial's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact UMB Financial's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding UMB Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out UMB Financial Backtesting, UMB Financial Valuation, UMB Financial Correlation, UMB Financial Hype Analysis, UMB Financial Volatility, UMB Financial History as well as UMB Financial Performance.
For more detail on how to invest in UMB Stock please use our How to Invest in UMB Financial guide.
You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of UMB Financial. If investors know UMB will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about UMB Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.126
Dividend Share
1.56
Earnings Share
8.01
Revenue Per Share
31.297
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.107
The market value of UMB Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of UMB that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of UMB Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is UMB Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because UMB Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect UMB Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between UMB Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if UMB Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, UMB Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.