Usa Mutuals Navigator Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 25.13
| UNAVX Fund | USD 26.88 0.02 0.07% |
Usa |
Usa Mutuals Target Price Odds to finish below 25.13
The tendency of Usa Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 25.13 or more in 90 days |
| 26.88 | 90 days | 25.13 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Usa Mutuals to drop to $ 25.13 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Usa Mutuals Navigator probability density function shows the probability of Usa Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Usa Mutuals Navigator price to stay between $ 25.13 and its current price of $26.88 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Usa Mutuals has a beta of 0.21. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Usa Mutuals average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Usa Mutuals Navigator will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Usa Mutuals Navigator has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Usa Mutuals Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Usa Mutuals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Usa Mutuals Navigator. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Usa Mutuals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Usa Mutuals Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Usa Mutuals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Usa Mutuals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Usa Mutuals Navigator, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Usa Mutuals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.21 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.24 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Usa Mutuals Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Usa Mutuals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Usa Mutuals Navigator can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Usa Mutuals generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund keeps about 99.99% of its net assets in cash |
Usa Mutuals Technical Analysis
Usa Mutuals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Usa Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Usa Mutuals Navigator. In general, you should focus on analyzing Usa Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Usa Mutuals Predictive Forecast Models
Usa Mutuals' time-series forecasting models is one of many Usa Mutuals' mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Usa Mutuals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Usa Mutuals Navigator
Checking the ongoing alerts about Usa Mutuals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Usa Mutuals Navigator help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Usa Mutuals generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund keeps about 99.99% of its net assets in cash |
Other Information on Investing in Usa Mutual Fund
Usa Mutuals financial ratios help investors to determine whether Usa Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Usa with respect to the benefits of owning Usa Mutuals security.
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