United Natural Foods Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 21.9
| UNFI Stock | USD 24.83 0.11 0.44% |
United |
United Natural Target Price Odds to finish below 21.9
The tendency of United Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 21.90 or more in 90 days |
| 24.83 | 90 days | 21.90 | about 81.84 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of United Natural to drop to $ 21.90 or more in 90 days from now is about 81.84 (This United Natural Foods probability density function shows the probability of United Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of United Natural Foods price to stay between $ 21.90 and its current price of $24.83 at the end of the 90-day period is about 15.22 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days United Natural has a beta of 0.97. This usually implies United Natural Foods market returns are responsive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, United Natural is expected to follow. Additionally United Natural Foods has an alpha of 0.8077, implying that it can generate a 0.81 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). United Natural Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for United Natural
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as United Natural Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.United Natural Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. United Natural is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the United Natural's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold United Natural Foods, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of United Natural within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.81 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.97 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.96 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.17 |
United Natural Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of United Natural for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for United Natural Foods can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| United Natural Foods appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 30.98 B. Net Loss for the year was (110 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 4.13 B. | |
| Over 90.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: United Natural Foods Stock Surges Over 5 percent Amid Market Activity |
United Natural Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of United Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential United Natural's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. United Natural's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 59.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 40 M |
United Natural Technical Analysis
United Natural's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. United Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of United Natural Foods. In general, you should focus on analyzing United Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
United Natural Predictive Forecast Models
United Natural's time-series forecasting models is one of many United Natural's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary United Natural's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about United Natural Foods
Checking the ongoing alerts about United Natural for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for United Natural Foods help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| United Natural Foods appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 30.98 B. Net Loss for the year was (110 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 4.13 B. | |
| Over 90.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: United Natural Foods Stock Surges Over 5 percent Amid Market Activity |
Check out United Natural Backtesting, United Natural Valuation, United Natural Correlation, United Natural Hype Analysis, United Natural Volatility, United Natural History as well as United Natural Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Is Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of United Natural. If investors know United will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about United Natural listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.89) | Earnings Share (1.89) | Revenue Per Share 522.428 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.099 | Return On Assets 0.0123 |
The market value of United Natural Foods is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of United that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of United Natural's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is United Natural's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because United Natural's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect United Natural's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between United Natural's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if United Natural is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, United Natural's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.