Union Pacific (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 223.67
| UNP Stock | EUR 217.60 0.50 0.23% |
Union |
Union Pacific Target Price Odds to finish below 223.67
The tendency of Union Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under € 223.67 after 90 days |
| 217.60 | 90 days | 223.67 | about 69.29 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Union Pacific to stay under € 223.67 after 90 days from now is about 69.29 (This Union Pacific probability density function shows the probability of Union Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Union Pacific price to stay between its current price of € 217.60 and € 223.67 at the end of the 90-day period is about 39.98 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Union Pacific has a beta of 0.52. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Union Pacific average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Union Pacific will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Union Pacific has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Union Pacific Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Union Pacific
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Union Pacific. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Union Pacific Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Union Pacific is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Union Pacific's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Union Pacific, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Union Pacific within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.52 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.79 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Union Pacific Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Union Pacific for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Union Pacific can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Union Pacific has accumulated 31.65 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 2.12, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Union Pacific has a current ratio of 0.84, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Union Pacific until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Union Pacific's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Union Pacific sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Union to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Union Pacific's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 81.0% of Union Pacific outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors |
Union Pacific Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Union Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Union Pacific's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Union Pacific's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 612.4 M |
Union Pacific Technical Analysis
Union Pacific's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Union Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Union Pacific. In general, you should focus on analyzing Union Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Union Pacific Predictive Forecast Models
Union Pacific's time-series forecasting models is one of many Union Pacific's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Union Pacific's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Union Pacific
Checking the ongoing alerts about Union Pacific for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Union Pacific help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Union Pacific has accumulated 31.65 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 2.12, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Union Pacific has a current ratio of 0.84, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Union Pacific until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Union Pacific's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Union Pacific sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Union to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Union Pacific's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 81.0% of Union Pacific outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Union Stock
When determining whether Union Pacific is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Union Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Union Pacific Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Union Pacific Stock:Check out Union Pacific Backtesting, Union Pacific Valuation, Union Pacific Correlation, Union Pacific Hype Analysis, Union Pacific Volatility, Union Pacific History as well as Union Pacific Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Union Stock please use our How to Invest in Union Pacific guide.You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.