AETNA INC 7625 Chance of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 106.11
| 008117AH6 | 109.46 5.63 5.42% |
AETNA |
AETNA Target Price Odds to finish below 106.11
The tendency of AETNA Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 106.11 or more in 90 days |
| 109.46 | 90 days | 106.11 | about 87.93 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AETNA to drop to 106.11 or more in 90 days from now is about 87.93 (This AETNA INC 7625 probability density function shows the probability of AETNA Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AETNA INC 7625 price to stay between 106.11 and its current price of 109.46 at the end of the 90-day period is about 11.51 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon AETNA has a beta of 0.0601. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, AETNA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AETNA INC 7625 will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AETNA INC 7625 has an alpha of 0.0431, implying that it can generate a 0.0431 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). AETNA Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for AETNA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AETNA INC 7625. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AETNA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AETNA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AETNA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AETNA INC 7625, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AETNA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.95 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
AETNA Technical Analysis
AETNA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AETNA Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AETNA INC 7625. In general, you should focus on analyzing AETNA Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AETNA Predictive Forecast Models
AETNA's time-series forecasting models is one of many AETNA's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AETNA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards AETNA in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, AETNA's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from AETNA options trading.
Other Information on Investing in AETNA Bond
AETNA financial ratios help investors to determine whether AETNA Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in AETNA with respect to the benefits of owning AETNA security.