ATO 285 15 FEB 52 Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 66.96
| 049560AW5 | 66.17 5.05 8.26% |
049560AW5 |
049560AW5 Target Price Odds to finish below 66.96
The tendency of 049560AW5 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 66.96 after 90 days |
| 66.17 | 90 days | 66.96 | about 68.87 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 049560AW5 to stay under 66.96 after 90 days from now is about 68.87 (This ATO 285 15 FEB 52 probability density function shows the probability of 049560AW5 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ATO 285 15 price to stay between its current price of 66.17 and 66.96 at the end of the 90-day period is about 11.85 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon 049560AW5 has a beta of 0.94. This usually implies ATO 285 15 FEB 52 market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, 049560AW5 is expected to follow. Additionally ATO 285 15 FEB 52 has an alpha of 0.0478, implying that it can generate a 0.0478 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). 049560AW5 Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for 049560AW5
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ATO 285 15. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.049560AW5 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 049560AW5 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 049560AW5's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ATO 285 15 FEB 52, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 049560AW5 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.94 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.50 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
049560AW5 Technical Analysis
049560AW5's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 049560AW5 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ATO 285 15 FEB 52. In general, you should focus on analyzing 049560AW5 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
049560AW5 Predictive Forecast Models
049560AW5's time-series forecasting models is one of many 049560AW5's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 049560AW5's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards 049560AW5 in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, 049560AW5's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from 049560AW5 options trading.
Other Information on Investing in 049560AW5 Bond
049560AW5 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 049560AW5 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 049560AW5 with respect to the benefits of owning 049560AW5 security.