CW Senior Financing Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 95.25

12674TAA4   100.15  1.33  1.35%   
12674TAA4's future price is the expected price of 12674TAA4 instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of CW Senior Financing performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out 12674TAA4 Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, 12674TAA4 Correlation, 12674TAA4 Hype Analysis, 12674TAA4 Volatility, 12674TAA4 History as well as 12674TAA4 Performance.
  
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12674TAA4 Target Price Odds to finish below 95.25

The tendency of 12674TAA4 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to  95.25  or more in 90 days
 100.15 90 days 95.25 
nearly 4.75
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 12674TAA4 to drop to  95.25  or more in 90 days from now is nearly 4.75 (This CW Senior Financing probability density function shows the probability of 12674TAA4 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CW Senior Financing price to stay between  95.25  and its current price of 100.15 at the end of the 90-day period is about 73.38 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon 12674TAA4 has a beta of 0.14. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, 12674TAA4 average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding CW Senior Financing will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally CW Senior Financing has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   12674TAA4 Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for 12674TAA4

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CW Senior Financing. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
98.90100.15101.40
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
96.1897.43110.17
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as 12674TAA4. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against 12674TAA4's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, 12674TAA4's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in CW Senior Financing.

12674TAA4 Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 12674TAA4 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 12674TAA4's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CW Senior Financing, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 12674TAA4 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.11
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.14
σ
Overall volatility
2.01
Ir
Information ratio -0.11

12674TAA4 Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of 12674TAA4 for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CW Senior Financing can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
CW Senior Financing generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

12674TAA4 Technical Analysis

12674TAA4's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 12674TAA4 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CW Senior Financing. In general, you should focus on analyzing 12674TAA4 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

12674TAA4 Predictive Forecast Models

12674TAA4's time-series forecasting models is one of many 12674TAA4's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 12674TAA4's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about CW Senior Financing

Checking the ongoing alerts about 12674TAA4 for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CW Senior Financing help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
CW Senior Financing generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

Other Information on Investing in 12674TAA4 Bond

12674TAA4 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 12674TAA4 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 12674TAA4 with respect to the benefits of owning 12674TAA4 security.