CINCINNATI FINL P Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Over 109.65

172062AE1   109.71  2.66  2.48%   
CINCINNATI's future price is the expected price of CINCINNATI instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of CINCINNATI FINL P performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out CINCINNATI Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, CINCINNATI Correlation, CINCINNATI Hype Analysis, CINCINNATI Volatility, CINCINNATI History as well as CINCINNATI Performance.
  
Please specify CINCINNATI's target price for which you would like CINCINNATI odds to be computed.

CINCINNATI Target Price Odds to finish over 109.65

The tendency of CINCINNATI Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above  109.65  in 90 days
 109.71 90 days 109.65 
about 5.62
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CINCINNATI to stay above  109.65  in 90 days from now is about 5.62 (This CINCINNATI FINL P probability density function shows the probability of CINCINNATI Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CINCINNATI FINL P price to stay between  109.65  and its current price of 109.71 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon CINCINNATI has a beta of 0.13. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, CINCINNATI average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding CINCINNATI FINL P will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally CINCINNATI FINL P has an alpha of 0.0053, implying that it can generate a 0.005326 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   CINCINNATI Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for CINCINNATI

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CINCINNATI FINL P. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
109.04109.71110.38
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
106.08106.75120.68
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
105.99106.66107.32
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
103.93106.79109.65
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as CINCINNATI. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against CINCINNATI's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, CINCINNATI's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in CINCINNATI FINL P.

CINCINNATI Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CINCINNATI is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CINCINNATI's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CINCINNATI FINL P, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CINCINNATI within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.01
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.13
σ
Overall volatility
1.43
Ir
Information ratio -0.08

CINCINNATI Technical Analysis

CINCINNATI's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CINCINNATI Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CINCINNATI FINL P. In general, you should focus on analyzing CINCINNATI Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

CINCINNATI Predictive Forecast Models

CINCINNATI's time-series forecasting models is one of many CINCINNATI's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CINCINNATI's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards CINCINNATI in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, CINCINNATI's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from CINCINNATI options trading.

Other Information on Investing in CINCINNATI Bond

CINCINNATI financial ratios help investors to determine whether CINCINNATI Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in CINCINNATI with respect to the benefits of owning CINCINNATI security.