MERCK INC 595 Chance of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 106.58
| 589331AE7 | 105.99 0.61 0.58% |
MERCK |
MERCK Target Price Odds to finish below 106.58
The tendency of MERCK Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 106.58 after 90 days |
| 105.99 | 90 days | 106.58 | about 57.3 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of MERCK to stay under 106.58 after 90 days from now is about 57.3 (This MERCK INC 595 probability density function shows the probability of MERCK Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of MERCK INC 595 price to stay between its current price of 105.99 and 106.58 at the end of the 90-day period is about 19.25 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon MERCK has a beta of 0.19. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, MERCK average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding MERCK INC 595 will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally MERCK INC 595 has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. MERCK Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for MERCK
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MERCK INC 595. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MERCK Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. MERCK is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the MERCK's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MERCK INC 595, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of MERCK within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.19 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.21 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
MERCK Technical Analysis
MERCK's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. MERCK Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MERCK INC 595. In general, you should focus on analyzing MERCK Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
MERCK Predictive Forecast Models
MERCK's time-series forecasting models is one of many MERCK's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary MERCK's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards MERCK in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, MERCK's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from MERCK options trading.
Other Information on Investing in MERCK Bond
MERCK financial ratios help investors to determine whether MERCK Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in MERCK with respect to the benefits of owning MERCK security.