NOVARTIS CAPITAL P Odds of Future Bond Price Finishing Over 92.63

66989HAQ1   92.91  2.49  2.61%   
NOVARTIS's future price is the expected price of NOVARTIS instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of NOVARTIS CAPITAL P performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out NOVARTIS Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, NOVARTIS Correlation, NOVARTIS Hype Analysis, NOVARTIS Volatility, NOVARTIS History as well as NOVARTIS Performance.
  
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NOVARTIS Target Price Odds to finish over 92.63

The tendency of NOVARTIS Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above  92.63  in 90 days
 92.91 90 days 92.63 
about 98.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NOVARTIS to stay above  92.63  in 90 days from now is about 98.0 (This NOVARTIS CAPITAL P probability density function shows the probability of NOVARTIS Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of NOVARTIS CAPITAL P price to stay between  92.63  and its current price of 92.91 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.3 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon NOVARTIS has a beta of 0.0401. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, NOVARTIS average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding NOVARTIS CAPITAL P will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally NOVARTIS CAPITAL P has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   NOVARTIS Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for NOVARTIS

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NOVARTIS CAPITAL P. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
92.5592.9193.27
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
92.8293.1893.54
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
90.7691.1291.48
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
92.3694.7697.16
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as NOVARTIS. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against NOVARTIS's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, NOVARTIS's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in NOVARTIS CAPITAL P.

NOVARTIS Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. NOVARTIS is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the NOVARTIS's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NOVARTIS CAPITAL P, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of NOVARTIS within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.06
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.04
σ
Overall volatility
1.17
Ir
Information ratio -0.25

NOVARTIS Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of NOVARTIS for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for NOVARTIS CAPITAL P can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
NOVARTIS CAPITAL P generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

NOVARTIS Technical Analysis

NOVARTIS's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. NOVARTIS Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NOVARTIS CAPITAL P. In general, you should focus on analyzing NOVARTIS Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

NOVARTIS Predictive Forecast Models

NOVARTIS's time-series forecasting models is one of many NOVARTIS's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary NOVARTIS's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about NOVARTIS CAPITAL P

Checking the ongoing alerts about NOVARTIS for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for NOVARTIS CAPITAL P help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
NOVARTIS CAPITAL P generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

Other Information on Investing in NOVARTIS Bond

NOVARTIS financial ratios help investors to determine whether NOVARTIS Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in NOVARTIS with respect to the benefits of owning NOVARTIS security.