PUBLIC SVC O Chance of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 86.60

744448CK5   84.81  1.39  1.61%   
PUBLIC's future price is the expected price of PUBLIC instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of PUBLIC SVC O performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out PUBLIC Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, PUBLIC Correlation, PUBLIC Hype Analysis, PUBLIC Volatility, PUBLIC History as well as PUBLIC Performance.
  
Please specify PUBLIC's target price for which you would like PUBLIC odds to be computed.

PUBLIC Target Price Odds to finish below 86.60

The tendency of PUBLIC Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under  86.60  after 90 days
 84.81 90 days 86.60 
about 50.51
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of PUBLIC to stay under  86.60  after 90 days from now is about 50.51 (This PUBLIC SVC O probability density function shows the probability of PUBLIC Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of PUBLIC SVC O price to stay between its current price of  84.81  and  86.60  at the end of the 90-day period is about 31.05 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon PUBLIC SVC O has a beta of -0.16. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding PUBLIC are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, PUBLIC SVC O is likely to outperform the market. Additionally PUBLIC SVC O has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   PUBLIC Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for PUBLIC

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PUBLIC SVC O. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
83.5884.8186.04
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
83.6084.8386.06
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as PUBLIC. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against PUBLIC's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, PUBLIC's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in PUBLIC SVC O.

PUBLIC Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. PUBLIC is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the PUBLIC's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold PUBLIC SVC O, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of PUBLIC within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.02
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.16
σ
Overall volatility
2.06
Ir
Information ratio -0.07

PUBLIC Technical Analysis

PUBLIC's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. PUBLIC Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of PUBLIC SVC O. In general, you should focus on analyzing PUBLIC Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

PUBLIC Predictive Forecast Models

PUBLIC's time-series forecasting models is one of many PUBLIC's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary PUBLIC's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards PUBLIC in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, PUBLIC's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from PUBLIC options trading.

Other Information on Investing in PUBLIC Bond

PUBLIC financial ratios help investors to determine whether PUBLIC Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in PUBLIC with respect to the benefits of owning PUBLIC security.