US78490FZC66 Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 61.55
| 78490FZC6 | 72.80 0.00 0.00% |
78490FZC6 |
78490FZC6 Target Price Odds to finish below 61.55
The tendency of 78490FZC6 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 61.55 or more in 90 days |
| 72.80 | 90 days | 61.55 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 78490FZC6 to drop to 61.55 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This US78490FZC66 probability density function shows the probability of 78490FZC6 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of US78490FZC66 price to stay between 61.55 and its current price of 72.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 15.14 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon 78490FZC6 has a beta of 0.68. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, 78490FZC6 average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding US78490FZC66 will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally US78490FZC66 has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. 78490FZC6 Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for 78490FZC6
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as US78490FZC66. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.78490FZC6 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 78490FZC6 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 78490FZC6's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold US78490FZC66, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 78490FZC6 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.68 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.06 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0044 |
78490FZC6 Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of 78490FZC6 for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for US78490FZC66 can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| US78490FZC66 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| US78490FZC66 has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
78490FZC6 Technical Analysis
78490FZC6's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 78490FZC6 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of US78490FZC66. In general, you should focus on analyzing 78490FZC6 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
78490FZC6 Predictive Forecast Models
78490FZC6's time-series forecasting models is one of many 78490FZC6's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 78490FZC6's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about US78490FZC66
Checking the ongoing alerts about 78490FZC6 for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for US78490FZC66 help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| US78490FZC66 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| US78490FZC66 has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
Other Information on Investing in 78490FZC6 Bond
78490FZC6 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 78490FZC6 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 78490FZC6 with respect to the benefits of owning 78490FZC6 security.