TOTAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL Chance of Future Bond Price Finishing Over 71.15

89153VAW9   72.90  3.45  4.97%   
TOTAL's future price is the expected price of TOTAL instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of TOTAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out TOTAL Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, TOTAL Correlation, TOTAL Hype Analysis, TOTAL Volatility, TOTAL History as well as TOTAL Performance.
  
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TOTAL Target Price Odds to finish over 71.15

The tendency of TOTAL Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above  71.15  in 90 days
 72.90 90 days 71.15 
about 33.46
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of TOTAL to stay above  71.15  in 90 days from now is about 33.46 (This TOTAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL probability density function shows the probability of TOTAL Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of TOTAL CAPITAL INTERN price to stay between  71.15  and its current price of 72.9 at the end of the 90-day period is about 22.87 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon TOTAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL has a beta of -0.1. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding TOTAL are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, TOTAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL is likely to outperform the market. Additionally TOTAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL has an alpha of 0.1063, implying that it can generate a 0.11 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   TOTAL Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for TOTAL

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TOTAL CAPITAL INTERN. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
71.7672.9074.04
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
58.4559.5980.19
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
71.7172.8473.98
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
66.8669.1071.35
Details

TOTAL Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. TOTAL is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the TOTAL's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold TOTAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of TOTAL within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.11
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.1
σ
Overall volatility
2.13
Ir
Information ratio -0.0043

TOTAL Technical Analysis

TOTAL's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. TOTAL Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of TOTAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL. In general, you should focus on analyzing TOTAL Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

TOTAL Predictive Forecast Models

TOTAL's time-series forecasting models is one of many TOTAL's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary TOTAL's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards TOTAL in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, TOTAL's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from TOTAL options trading.

Other Information on Investing in TOTAL Bond

TOTAL financial ratios help investors to determine whether TOTAL Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in TOTAL with respect to the benefits of owning TOTAL security.