Varta AG (Germany) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 18.86
| VAR1 Stock | 1.62 0.06 3.85% |
Varta |
Varta AG Target Price Odds to finish below 18.86
The tendency of Varta Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 18.86 after 90 days |
| 1.62 | 90 days | 18.86 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Varta AG to stay under 18.86 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Varta AG probability density function shows the probability of Varta Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Varta AG price to stay between its current price of 1.62 and 18.86 at the end of the 90-day period is about 81.1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Varta AG has a beta of 0.88. This entails Varta AG market returns are highly-sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Varta AG is expected to follow. Additionally Varta AG has an alpha of 0.8718, implying that it can generate a 0.87 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Varta AG Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Varta AG
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Varta AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Varta AG Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Varta AG is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Varta AG's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Varta AG, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Varta AG within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.87 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.88 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.93 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Varta AG Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Varta AG for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Varta AG can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Varta AG is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Varta AG may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Varta AG appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 55.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders |
Varta AG Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Varta Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Varta AG's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Varta AG's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 107.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 73.1 M |
Varta AG Technical Analysis
Varta AG's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Varta Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Varta AG. In general, you should focus on analyzing Varta Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Varta AG Predictive Forecast Models
Varta AG's time-series forecasting models is one of many Varta AG's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Varta AG's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Varta AG
Checking the ongoing alerts about Varta AG for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Varta AG help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Varta AG is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Varta AG may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Varta AG appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 55.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Varta Stock
Varta AG financial ratios help investors to determine whether Varta Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Varta with respect to the benefits of owning Varta AG security.