Vanguard Commodity Strategy Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 26.64
| VCMDX Fund | USD 26.15 0.08 0.31% |
Vanguard |
Vanguard Commodity Target Price Odds to finish over 26.64
The tendency of Vanguard Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 26.64 or more in 90 days |
| 26.15 | 90 days | 26.64 | about 6.68 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vanguard Commodity to move over $ 26.64 or more in 90 days from now is about 6.68 (This Vanguard Commodity Strategy probability density function shows the probability of Vanguard Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vanguard Commodity price to stay between its current price of $ 26.15 and $ 26.64 at the end of the 90-day period is about 26.5 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Vanguard Commodity Strategy has a beta of -0.14. This entails as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Vanguard Commodity are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Vanguard Commodity Strategy is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Vanguard Commodity Strategy has an alpha of 0.0898, implying that it can generate a 0.0898 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Vanguard Commodity Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Vanguard Commodity
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vanguard Commodity. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard Commodity's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vanguard Commodity Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vanguard Commodity is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vanguard Commodity's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vanguard Commodity Strategy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vanguard Commodity within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.46 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Vanguard Commodity Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vanguard Commodity for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vanguard Commodity can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund keeps about 35.85% of its net assets in cash |
Vanguard Commodity Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vanguard Mutual Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vanguard Commodity's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vanguard Commodity's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Vanguard Commodity Technical Analysis
Vanguard Commodity's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vanguard Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vanguard Commodity Strategy. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vanguard Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Vanguard Commodity Predictive Forecast Models
Vanguard Commodity's time-series forecasting models is one of many Vanguard Commodity's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vanguard Commodity's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Vanguard Commodity
Checking the ongoing alerts about Vanguard Commodity for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vanguard Commodity help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund keeps about 35.85% of its net assets in cash |
Other Information on Investing in Vanguard Mutual Fund
Vanguard Commodity financial ratios help investors to determine whether Vanguard Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Vanguard with respect to the benefits of owning Vanguard Commodity security.
| Aroon Oscillator Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios | |
| Portfolio Optimization Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk | |
| Portfolio Diagnostics Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings | |
| Portfolio Manager State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital |