Vallourec (France) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 14.45
| VK Stock | EUR 16.53 0.29 1.79% |
Vallourec |
Vallourec Target Price Odds to finish below 14.45
The tendency of Vallourec Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 14.45 or more in 90 days |
| 16.53 | 90 days | 14.45 | about 48.28 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vallourec to drop to € 14.45 or more in 90 days from now is about 48.28 (This Vallourec probability density function shows the probability of Vallourec Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vallourec price to stay between € 14.45 and its current price of €16.53 at the end of the 90-day period is about 49.04 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Vallourec has a beta of 0.91. This entails Vallourec market returns are sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Vallourec is expected to follow. Additionally Vallourec has an alpha of 0.1955, implying that it can generate a 0.2 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Vallourec Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Vallourec
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vallourec. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Vallourec Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vallourec is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vallourec's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vallourec, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vallourec within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.20 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.91 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Vallourec Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vallourec for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vallourec can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Vallourec has accumulated 1.39 B in total debt. Vallourec has a current ratio of 0.6, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Vallourec until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Vallourec's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Vallourec sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Vallourec to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Vallourec's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Vallourec has accumulated about 1.24 B in cash with (145.81 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 109.51, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 60.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors |
Vallourec Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vallourec Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vallourec's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vallourec's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 120.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 627.3 M |
Vallourec Technical Analysis
Vallourec's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vallourec Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vallourec. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vallourec Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Vallourec Predictive Forecast Models
Vallourec's time-series forecasting models is one of many Vallourec's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vallourec's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Vallourec
Checking the ongoing alerts about Vallourec for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vallourec help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Vallourec has accumulated 1.39 B in total debt. Vallourec has a current ratio of 0.6, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Vallourec until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Vallourec's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Vallourec sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Vallourec to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Vallourec's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Vallourec has accumulated about 1.24 B in cash with (145.81 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 109.51, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 60.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors |
Other Information on Investing in Vallourec Stock
Vallourec financial ratios help investors to determine whether Vallourec Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Vallourec with respect to the benefits of owning Vallourec security.