Vista Outdoor Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 29.57
| VSTODelisted Stock | USD 44.63 0.03 0.07% |
Vista |
Vista Outdoor Target Price Odds to finish below 29.57
The tendency of Vista Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 29.57 or more in 90 days |
| 44.63 | 90 days | 29.57 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vista Outdoor to drop to $ 29.57 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Vista Outdoor probability density function shows the probability of Vista Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vista Outdoor price to stay between $ 29.57 and its current price of $44.63 at the end of the 90-day period is about 85.94 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Vista Outdoor has a beta of 0.32. This entails as returns on the market go up, Vista Outdoor average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Vista Outdoor will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Vista Outdoor has an alpha of 0.1544, implying that it can generate a 0.15 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Vista Outdoor Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Vista Outdoor
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vista Outdoor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vista Outdoor's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vista Outdoor Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vista Outdoor is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vista Outdoor's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vista Outdoor, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vista Outdoor within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.32 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.43 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
Vista Outdoor Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vista Outdoor for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vista Outdoor can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Vista Outdoor has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.75 B. Net Loss for the year was (5.5 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.04 B. | |
| Over 92.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from kalkinemedia.com: Dot and Microsoft Unveil Dot Vista A Breakthrough AI Image Conversion Solution for Accessibility |
Vista Outdoor Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vista Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vista Outdoor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vista Outdoor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 57.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 60.3 M |
Vista Outdoor Technical Analysis
Vista Outdoor's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vista Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vista Outdoor. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vista Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Vista Outdoor Predictive Forecast Models
Vista Outdoor's time-series forecasting models is one of many Vista Outdoor's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vista Outdoor's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Vista Outdoor
Checking the ongoing alerts about Vista Outdoor for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vista Outdoor help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Vista Outdoor has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.75 B. Net Loss for the year was (5.5 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.04 B. | |
| Over 92.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from kalkinemedia.com: Dot and Microsoft Unveil Dot Vista A Breakthrough AI Image Conversion Solution for Accessibility |
Check out Vista Outdoor Backtesting, Vista Outdoor Valuation, Vista Outdoor Correlation, Vista Outdoor Hype Analysis, Vista Outdoor Volatility, Vista Outdoor History as well as Vista Outdoor Performance. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Other Consideration for investing in Vista Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Vista Outdoor check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Vista Outdoor's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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