Willamette Valley Vineyards Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.96
| WVVI Stock | USD 3.30 0.03 0.90% |
Willamette |
Willamette Valley Target Price Odds to finish below 4.96
The tendency of Willamette Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 4.96 after 90 days |
| 3.30 | 90 days | 4.96 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Willamette Valley to stay under $ 4.96 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Willamette Valley Vineyards probability density function shows the probability of Willamette Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Willamette Valley price to stay between its current price of $ 3.30 and $ 4.96 at the end of the 90-day period is about 81.83 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Willamette Valley Vineyards has a beta of -0.0675. This entails as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Willamette Valley are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Willamette Valley Vineyards is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Willamette Valley Vineyards has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Willamette Valley Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Willamette Valley
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Willamette Valley. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Willamette Valley's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Willamette Valley Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Willamette Valley is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Willamette Valley's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Willamette Valley Vineyards, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Willamette Valley within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.07 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.11 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Willamette Valley Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Willamette Valley for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Willamette Valley can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Willamette Valley generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 39.14 M. Net Loss for the year was (1.2 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 18.81 M. | |
| Willamette Valley Vineyards currently holds about 3.13 M in cash with (1.99 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.63. | |
| Roughly 23.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: WVVI 1-Year Sharpe Ratio -2.03 - GuruFocus.com |
Willamette Valley Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Willamette Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Willamette Valley's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Willamette Valley's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 238.5 K |
Willamette Valley Technical Analysis
Willamette Valley's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Willamette Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Willamette Valley Vineyards. In general, you should focus on analyzing Willamette Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Willamette Valley Predictive Forecast Models
Willamette Valley's time-series forecasting models is one of many Willamette Valley's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Willamette Valley's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Willamette Valley
Checking the ongoing alerts about Willamette Valley for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Willamette Valley help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Willamette Valley generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 39.14 M. Net Loss for the year was (1.2 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 18.81 M. | |
| Willamette Valley Vineyards currently holds about 3.13 M in cash with (1.99 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.63. | |
| Roughly 23.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: WVVI 1-Year Sharpe Ratio -2.03 - GuruFocus.com |
Check out Willamette Valley Backtesting, Willamette Valley Valuation, Willamette Valley Correlation, Willamette Valley Hype Analysis, Willamette Valley Volatility, Willamette Valley History as well as Willamette Valley Performance. You can also try the AI Portfolio Architect module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Is Distillers & Vintners space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Willamette Valley. If investors know Willamette will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Willamette Valley listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.42) | Earnings Share (0.60) | Revenue Per Share 7.903 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) | Return On Assets (0) |
The market value of Willamette Valley is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Willamette that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Willamette Valley's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Willamette Valley's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Willamette Valley's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Willamette Valley's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Willamette Valley's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Willamette Valley is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Willamette Valley's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.