Carpenter Technology (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 156.12
| XTY Stock | EUR 161.00 1.00 0.62% |
Carpenter |
Carpenter Technology Target Price Odds to finish below 156.12
The tendency of Carpenter Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 156.12 or more in 90 days |
| 161.00 | 90 days | 156.12 | about 43.86 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Carpenter Technology to drop to € 156.12 or more in 90 days from now is about 43.86 (This Carpenter Technology probability density function shows the probability of Carpenter Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Carpenter Technology price to stay between € 156.12 and its current price of €161.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 12.39 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Carpenter Technology has a beta of 1.0. This entails Carpenter Technology market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Carpenter Technology is expected to follow. Additionally Carpenter Technology has an alpha of 0.2078, implying that it can generate a 0.21 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Carpenter Technology Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Carpenter Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Carpenter Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Carpenter Technology Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Carpenter Technology is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Carpenter Technology's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Carpenter Technology, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Carpenter Technology within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.21 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.00 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 15.65 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
Carpenter Technology Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Carpenter Technology for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Carpenter Technology can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company reported the revenue of 1.84 B. Net Loss for the year was (49.1 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 143.8 M. | |
| Over 94.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors |
Carpenter Technology Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Carpenter Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Carpenter Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Carpenter Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 48.3 M |
Carpenter Technology Technical Analysis
Carpenter Technology's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Carpenter Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Carpenter Technology. In general, you should focus on analyzing Carpenter Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Carpenter Technology Predictive Forecast Models
Carpenter Technology's time-series forecasting models is one of many Carpenter Technology's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Carpenter Technology's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Carpenter Technology
Checking the ongoing alerts about Carpenter Technology for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Carpenter Technology help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company reported the revenue of 1.84 B. Net Loss for the year was (49.1 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 143.8 M. | |
| Over 94.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Carpenter Stock
When determining whether Carpenter Technology is a strong investment it is important to analyze Carpenter Technology's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Carpenter Technology's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Carpenter Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Carpenter Technology Backtesting, Carpenter Technology Valuation, Carpenter Technology Correlation, Carpenter Technology Hype Analysis, Carpenter Technology Volatility, Carpenter Technology History as well as Carpenter Technology Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Carpenter Stock please use our How to Invest in Carpenter Technology guide.You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.