Zto Express Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 22.97
| ZTO Stock | USD 18.90 0.49 2.53% |
ZTO |
ZTO Express Target Price Odds to finish below 22.97
The tendency of ZTO Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 22.97 after 90 days |
| 18.90 | 90 days | 22.97 | about 55.98 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ZTO Express to stay under $ 22.97 after 90 days from now is about 55.98 (This ZTO Express probability density function shows the probability of ZTO Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ZTO Express price to stay between its current price of $ 18.90 and $ 22.97 at the end of the 90-day period is about 49.35 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon ZTO Express has a beta of 0.33. This usually means as returns on the market go up, ZTO Express average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ZTO Express will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ZTO Express has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. ZTO Express Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ZTO Express
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ZTO Express. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ZTO Express' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ZTO Express Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ZTO Express is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ZTO Express' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ZTO Express, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ZTO Express within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.22 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.33 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.47 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
ZTO Express Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ZTO Express for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ZTO Express can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| ZTO Express generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ZTO Express has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| On 17th of October 2024 ZTO Express paid $ 0.35 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: ZTO Express Inc Shares Up 6.79 percent on Dec 9 |
ZTO Express Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ZTO Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ZTO Express' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ZTO Express' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 838.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 19.9 B |
ZTO Express Technical Analysis
ZTO Express' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ZTO Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ZTO Express. In general, you should focus on analyzing ZTO Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ZTO Express Predictive Forecast Models
ZTO Express' time-series forecasting models is one of many ZTO Express' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ZTO Express' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ZTO Express
Checking the ongoing alerts about ZTO Express for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ZTO Express help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| ZTO Express generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| ZTO Express has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| On 17th of October 2024 ZTO Express paid $ 0.35 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: ZTO Express Inc Shares Up 6.79 percent on Dec 9 |
Check out ZTO Express Backtesting, ZTO Express Valuation, ZTO Express Correlation, ZTO Express Hype Analysis, ZTO Express Volatility, ZTO Express History as well as ZTO Express Performance. To learn how to invest in ZTO Stock, please use our How to Invest in ZTO Express guide.You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Is Air Freight & Logistics space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ZTO Express. If investors know ZTO will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ZTO Express listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.028 | Earnings Share 1.44 | Revenue Per Share 50.089 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.101 | Return On Assets 0.0775 |
The market value of ZTO Express is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ZTO that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ZTO Express' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ZTO Express' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ZTO Express' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ZTO Express' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ZTO Express' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ZTO Express is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ZTO Express' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.