Ambac Financial Group Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| AMBC Stock | USD 12.84 0.14 1.10% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and complete risk avoidance on your part, our recommendation regarding Ambac Financial Group is 'Strong Sell'. Macroaxis provides Ambac Financial buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding AMBC positions.
Check out Ambac Financial Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Ambac and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Ambac Financial Group. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of labor statistics.
Ambac |
Execute Ambac Financial Buy or Sell Advice
The Ambac recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Ambac Financial Group. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Ambac Financial Group or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Ambac Financial's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Sell
Market Performance | OK | Details | |
Volatility | Not too volatile | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Below Average | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Almost mirrors the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Interested | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Possible Manipulator | Details |
Ambac Financial Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Ambac Financial Group currently holds 3.5 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 8.17, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Ambac Financial Group has a current ratio of 0.74, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Ambac Financial's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Over 88.0% of Ambac Financial shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Ambac Financial Group Third Quarter 2024 Earnings US0.63 loss per share |
Ambac Financial Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Ambac Financial's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Ambac Financial's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Ambac Financial daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Ambac Financial Group price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Ambac Financial returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Ambac Financial.
| Mean Return | 0.22 | Value At Risk | -2.9 | Potential Upside | 3.27 | Standard Deviation | 2.16 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Ambac Financial historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Ambac Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Citadel Advisors Llc | 2024-09-30 | 729.2 K | Deutsche Bank Ag | 2024-06-30 | 683.5 K | Susquehanna International Group, Llp | 2024-06-30 | 631.1 K | Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership | 2024-06-30 | 611.4 K | Bracebridge Capital, Llc | 2024-09-30 | 579.2 K | Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc | 2024-09-30 | 553.4 K | Gendell Jeffrey L | 2024-09-30 | 527.5 K | D. E. Shaw & Co Lp | 2024-09-30 | 475.5 K | Northern Trust Corp | 2024-09-30 | 473.1 K | Blackrock Inc | 2024-06-30 | 7.5 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2024-09-30 | 4.1 M |
Ambac Financial Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | (2M) | (46M) | (12M) | 38M | 213M | 223.7M | |
| Free Cash Flow | (311M) | (353M) | (131M) | 1.3B | 200M | 210M | |
| Depreciation | 295M | 58M | 57M | 49M | 31M | 47.3M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | (101M) | 17M | (93M) | (297M) | 18M | 18.9M | |
| Net Income | (216M) | (437M) | (16M) | 522M | 4M | 3.8M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 81M | 35M | 23M | 61M | 274M | 287.7M | |
| Change To Netincome | (95.4M) | (69M) | (20M) | (95M) | (85.5M) | (81.2M) | |
| Change To Inventory | (1.8B) | (409M) | 121M | (6M) | (5.4M) | (5.7M) | |
| Investments | 1.3B | 358M | 328M | 601M | 952M | 999.6M | |
| Change Receivables | 77M | 44M | 48M | 54M | 48.6M | 46.2M | |
| Net Borrowings | (166M) | (121M) | (12M) | 191M | 219.7M | 230.6M |
Ambac Financial Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Ambac Financial or Insurance sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Ambac Financial's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Ambac stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.15 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
Ambac Financial Volatility Alert
Ambac Financial Group currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.04 and Jensen Alpha of 0.07. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Ambac Financial's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Ambac Financial's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Ambac Financial Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Ambac Financial's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Ambac Financial's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Ambac Financial and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Ambac Financial or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Ambac Financial's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ambac Financial by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Ambac Financial to competition |
| Fundamentals | Ambac Financial | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | -0.0149 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0041 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | (0.06) % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | (0.04) % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 4.21 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 47.44 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 3.82 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 87.60 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 1.88 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 183.25 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 0.42 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 1.53 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 269 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 674 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 107 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 4 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 525 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 11.68 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 3.5 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 8.17 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 0.76 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 30.88 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 200 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 7.11 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | (0.47) X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 0.90 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 17.0 | |
| Number Of Employees | 178 | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.23 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 609.17 M | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 8.03 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 1.25 B | 9.33 B |
| Net Asset | 8.03 B |
Note: Acquisition by David Trick of 1500 shares of Ambac Financial at 10.69 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Ambac Financial Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Ambac . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Ambac Financial Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Ambac Financial Group? Buying financial instruments such as Ambac Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Ambac Financial in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
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Check out Ambac Financial Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ambac Financial. If investors know Ambac will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ambac Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.81) | Earnings Share (0.47) | Revenue Per Share 8.59 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.681 | Return On Assets 0.0041 |
The market value of Ambac Financial Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ambac that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ambac Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ambac Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ambac Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ambac Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ambac Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ambac Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ambac Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.