Commerce Bancshares Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| CBSH Stock | USD 73.88 0.08 0.11% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your conservative risk appetite, our recommendation regarding Commerce Bancshares is 'Strong Sell'. The recommendation algorithm takes into account all of Commerce Bancshares' available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
Check out Commerce Bancshares Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For more detail on how to invest in Commerce Stock please use our How to Invest in Commerce Bancshares guide. In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Commerce and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Commerce Bancshares. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in state.
Commerce |
Execute Commerce Bancshares Buy or Sell Advice
The Commerce recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Commerce Bancshares. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Commerce Bancshares or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Commerce Bancshares' advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Sell
Market Performance | OK | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Stale | Details | |
Current Valuation | Overvalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Moves indifferently to market moves | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Hold | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unavailable | Details |
Commerce Bancshares Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| About 71.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Insider Sell Richard Heise Sells Shares of Commerce Bancshares Inc |
Commerce Bancshares Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Commerce Bancshares' historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Commerce Bancshares' future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Commerce Bancshares daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Commerce Bancshares price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Commerce Bancshares returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Commerce Bancshares.
| Mean Return | 0.27 | Value At Risk | -1.79 | Potential Upside | 2.63 | Standard Deviation | 1.83 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Commerce Bancshares historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Commerce Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Jpmorgan Chase & Co | 2024-06-30 | 1.5 M | Btim Corp | 2024-09-30 | 1.2 M | Norges Bank | 2024-06-30 | 1.2 M | Bank Of America Corp | 2024-06-30 | 1.2 M | Bank Of New York Mellon Corp | 2024-06-30 | 1.2 M | First Trust Advisors L.p. | 2024-06-30 | 1.1 M | Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc | 2024-09-30 | 1 M | Northern Trust Corp | 2024-09-30 | 976 K | Cooke & Bieler Lp | 2024-09-30 | 891.9 K | Vanguard Group Inc | 2024-09-30 | 12.6 M | Blackrock Inc | 2024-06-30 | 10.9 M |
Commerce Bancshares Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | (301.4M) | 1.3B | 2.1B | (3.4B) | 1.8B | 1.9B | |
| Free Cash Flow | 470.2M | 590.9M | 541.0M | 494.2M | 400.7M | 310.1M | |
| Depreciation | 41.1M | 43.8M | 44.9M | 46.9M | 49.5M | 49.7M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | (2.5M) | 241.5M | (40.2M) | 12.1M | (100.8M) | (95.8M) | |
| Dividends Paid | 122.5M | 127.6M | 122.7M | 127.5M | 134.7M | 75.4M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 42.6M | 33.1M | 56.7M | 65.2M | 88.1M | 92.5M | |
| Net Income | 422.7M | 353.9M | 540.6M | 500.0M | 485.2M | 250.9M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 907.8M | 2.2B | 4.3B | 897.8M | 2.7B | 2.8B | |
| Change To Inventory | (21.1M) | 18.3M | 87.8M | 80.4M | 72.4M | 76.0M | |
| Change To Netincome | 71.3M | 88.3M | (55.6M) | 52.6M | 60.5M | 63.5M | |
| Investments | (952.8M) | (6.0B) | (1.3B) | (602.5M) | 2.2B | 2.3B | |
| Change Receivables | 3.3M | (13.4M) | 19.8M | (28.4M) | (25.6M) | (24.3M) | |
| Net Borrowings | (112.0M) | 247.6M | 924.6M | (181.2M) | (208.4M) | (198.0M) |
Commerce Bancshares Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Commerce Bancshares or Banks sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Commerce Bancshares' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Commerce stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.67 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.87 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Commerce Bancshares Volatility Alert
Commerce Bancshares has relatively low volatility with skewness of 2.63 and kurtosis of 14.28. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Commerce Bancshares' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Commerce Bancshares' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Commerce Bancshares Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Commerce Bancshares' fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Commerce Bancshares' direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Commerce Bancshares and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Commerce Bancshares or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Commerce Bancshares' fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Commerce Bancshares by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Commerce Bancshares to competition |
| Fundamentals | Commerce Bancshares | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.17 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0162 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.31 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.46 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 7.95 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 128.23 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 2.53 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 71.32 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 2.07 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 20.35 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 2.76 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 5.86 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 1.38 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 1.48 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 669.24 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 485.18 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 2.32 B | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 19.40 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 1.4 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.04 % | 48.70 % |
| Book Value Per Share | 26.68 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 488.77 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 3.24 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 3.84 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 3.58 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 70.79 | |
| Number Of Employees | 4.71 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.74 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 9.47 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 31.7 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 53.18 M | 9.33 B |
| Annual Yield | 0.01 % | |
| Five Year Return | 1.53 % |
Note: Disposition of 700 shares by Kellerhals Patricia R of Commerce Bancshares at 76.235 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Commerce Bancshares Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Commerce . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Commerce Bancshares Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Commerce Bancshares? Buying financial instruments such as Commerce Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Commerce Bancshares in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Marketing Thematic Idea Now
Marketing
Companies providing marketing and public relation (PR) services as well as news and media distribution. The Marketing theme has 43 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Marketing Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Commerce Bancshares Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For more detail on how to invest in Commerce Stock please use our How to Invest in Commerce Bancshares guide.You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Commerce Bancshares. If investors know Commerce will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Commerce Bancshares listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.162 | Dividend Share 1.067 | Earnings Share 3.84 | Revenue Per Share 12.557 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.083 |
The market value of Commerce Bancshares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Commerce that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Commerce Bancshares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Commerce Bancshares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Commerce Bancshares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Commerce Bancshares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Commerce Bancshares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Commerce Bancshares is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Commerce Bancshares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.