Rafael Microelectronics Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| 6568 Stock | TWD 125.50 1.00 0.79% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Rafael Microelectronics on the next trading day is expected to be 128.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 141.10. Rafael Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Rafael |
Rafael Microelectronics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Rafael Microelectronics on the next trading day is expected to be 128.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.28, mean absolute percentage error of 7.75, and the sum of the absolute errors of 141.10.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Rafael Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Rafael Microelectronics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Rafael Microelectronics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Rafael Microelectronics | Rafael Microelectronics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Rafael Microelectronics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Rafael Microelectronics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Rafael Microelectronics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 126.31 and 129.82, respectively. We have considered Rafael Microelectronics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Rafael Microelectronics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Rafael Microelectronics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.9959 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.2758 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0177 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 141.1026 |
Predictive Modules for Rafael Microelectronics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Rafael Microelectronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Rafael Microelectronics
For every potential investor in Rafael, whether a beginner or expert, Rafael Microelectronics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Rafael Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Rafael. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Rafael Microelectronics' price trends.Rafael Microelectronics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Rafael Microelectronics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Rafael Microelectronics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Rafael Microelectronics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Rafael Microelectronics Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Rafael Microelectronics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Rafael Microelectronics' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Rafael Microelectronics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Rafael Microelectronics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Rafael Microelectronics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Rafael Microelectronics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Rafael Microelectronics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 691.02 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.50) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 126.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 125.83 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.00) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.00) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 37.33 |
Rafael Microelectronics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Rafael Microelectronics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Rafael Microelectronics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rafael stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.44 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.74 | |||
| Variance | 3.02 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.39 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.08 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.57) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Rafael Microelectronics
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Rafael Microelectronics position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Rafael Microelectronics will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Rafael Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Rafael Microelectronics could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Rafael Microelectronics when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Rafael Microelectronics - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Rafael Microelectronics to buy it.
The correlation of Rafael Microelectronics is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Rafael Microelectronics moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Rafael Microelectronics moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Rafael Microelectronics can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Rafael Stock Analysis
When running Rafael Microelectronics' price analysis, check to measure Rafael Microelectronics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Rafael Microelectronics is operating at the current time. Most of Rafael Microelectronics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Rafael Microelectronics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Rafael Microelectronics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Rafael Microelectronics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.