ACV Auctions Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ACVA Stock  USD 20.94  0.71  3.28%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ACV Auctions on the next trading day is expected to be 19.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.40. ACV Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ACV Auctions stock prices and determine the direction of ACV Auctions's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of ACV Auctions' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, ACV Auctions' Payables Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Fixed Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 102.74, whereas Receivables Turnover is forecasted to decline to 1.26. . The current year's Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to grow to about 171.9 M, whereas Net Loss is forecasted to decline to (96.6 M).

ACV Auctions Cash Forecast

Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the ACV Auctions' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2018-12-31
Previous Quarter
215 M
Current Value
252.5 M
Quarterly Volatility
203.2 M
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for ACV Auctions is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of ACV Auctions value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

ACV Auctions Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 15th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ACV Auctions on the next trading day is expected to be 19.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42, mean absolute percentage error of 0.31, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.40.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ACV Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ACV Auctions' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ACV Auctions Stock Forecast Pattern

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ACV Auctions Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ACV Auctions' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ACV Auctions' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.19 and 21.94, respectively. We have considered ACV Auctions' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
20.94
19.56
Expected Value
21.94
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ACV Auctions stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ACV Auctions stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.9465
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4163
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0215
SAESum of the absolute errors25.3967
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ACV Auctions. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict ACV Auctions. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for ACV Auctions

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ACV Auctions. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ACV Auctions' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
18.5620.9423.32
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
17.2319.6121.99
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
18.8820.7523.03
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.010.010.02
Details

Other Forecasting Options for ACV Auctions

For every potential investor in ACV, whether a beginner or expert, ACV Auctions' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ACV Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ACV. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ACV Auctions' price trends.

ACV Auctions Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ACV Auctions stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ACV Auctions could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ACV Auctions by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ACV Auctions Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ACV Auctions' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ACV Auctions' current price.

ACV Auctions Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ACV Auctions stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ACV Auctions shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ACV Auctions stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ACV Auctions entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

ACV Auctions Risk Indicators

The analysis of ACV Auctions' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ACV Auctions' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting acv stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When determining whether ACV Auctions offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of ACV Auctions' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Acv Auctions Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Acv Auctions Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ACV Auctions to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade ACV Stock refer to our How to Trade ACV Stock guide.
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Is Commercial Services & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ACV Auctions. If investors know ACV will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ACV Auctions listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(0.47)
Revenue Per Share
3.644
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.44
Return On Assets
(0.05)
Return On Equity
(0.17)
The market value of ACV Auctions is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ACV that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ACV Auctions' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ACV Auctions' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ACV Auctions' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ACV Auctions' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ACV Auctions' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ACV Auctions is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ACV Auctions' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.