Crossamerica Partners Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

CAPL Stock  USD 21.60  0.02  0.09%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Crossamerica Partners LP on the next trading day is expected to be 21.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.21. Crossamerica Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Crossamerica Partners' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Crossamerica Partners' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Crossamerica Partners fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Crossamerica Partners' Payables Turnover is quite stable compared to the past year. Fixed Asset Turnover is expected to rise to 5.36 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover will most likely fall to 72.67. . Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to rise to about 74.8 M this year, although the value of Common Stock Shares Outstanding will most likely fall to about 31.2 M.

Crossamerica Partners Cash Forecast

To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Crossamerica Partners' financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2011-12-31
Previous Quarter
5.5 M
Current Value
7.8 M
Quarterly Volatility
3.6 M
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Crossamerica Partners is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Crossamerica Partners LP value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Crossamerica Partners Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Crossamerica Partners LP on the next trading day is expected to be 21.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.21.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Crossamerica Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Crossamerica Partners' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Crossamerica Partners Stock Forecast Pattern

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Crossamerica Partners Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Crossamerica Partners' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Crossamerica Partners' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.69 and 22.50, respectively. We have considered Crossamerica Partners' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
21.60
21.09
Expected Value
22.50
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Crossamerica Partners stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Crossamerica Partners stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.332
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.213
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0102
SAESum of the absolute errors13.2065
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Crossamerica Partners LP. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Crossamerica Partners. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Crossamerica Partners

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Crossamerica Partners. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
20.2021.5922.98
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
19.2320.6222.01
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
18.2020.0022.20
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.030.030.03
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Crossamerica Partners

For every potential investor in Crossamerica, whether a beginner or expert, Crossamerica Partners' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Crossamerica Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Crossamerica. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Crossamerica Partners' price trends.

Crossamerica Partners Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Crossamerica Partners stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Crossamerica Partners could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Crossamerica Partners by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Crossamerica Partners Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Crossamerica Partners' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Crossamerica Partners' current price.

Crossamerica Partners Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Crossamerica Partners stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Crossamerica Partners shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Crossamerica Partners stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Crossamerica Partners LP entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Crossamerica Partners Risk Indicators

The analysis of Crossamerica Partners' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Crossamerica Partners' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting crossamerica stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Crossamerica Partners is a strong investment it is important to analyze Crossamerica Partners' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Crossamerica Partners' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Crossamerica Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Crossamerica Partners to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Is Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Crossamerica Partners. If investors know Crossamerica will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Crossamerica Partners listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.13)
Dividend Share
2.1
Earnings Share
0.52
Revenue Per Share
101.473
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.12)
The market value of Crossamerica Partners is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Crossamerica that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Crossamerica Partners' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Crossamerica Partners' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Crossamerica Partners' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Crossamerica Partners' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Crossamerica Partners' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Crossamerica Partners is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Crossamerica Partners' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.